Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+1COL

CHC

9-12

COL

11-10-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

11,104 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 2.8medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.0medium

Hits

TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.3± 0.8high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high
Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Carson KellyCHC
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

COL

.736

OPS

.718

.739

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.324

4.92

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.61

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.47

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

CHC 3 · COL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	3
COL	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. ShawRF	.323	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
I. HappLF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.320	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CarlsonLF	.357	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. BallesterosDH	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. AlcantaraDH	.292	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. Long1B	.375	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. RojasSS	.243	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.292	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Bethancourt1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Kingery3B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. NwoguLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. PreciadoSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PalmerOF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. DelgadoLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. VivasSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	8	2	0	3	9

Player

.273

.323

.167

.320

.357

.333

.292

.375

.243

.292

.200

.182

.000

.200

.333

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BrownRP	4.0	2	1	1	0	6	51
R. RolisonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	20
H. HarveyRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	1	16
G. HollowellRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
G. KippP	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	19
Team	8.1	9	4	3	0	9	126

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

Team

8.1

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. DoyleCF	.400	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.100	3	0	0	1	0	0	2
M. MoniakLF	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.407	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.325	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.286	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.290	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
E. HollidaySS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. CalazOF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Brito2B	.167	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. CordovaC	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. GrayOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. DalisSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Riggio2B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Kent2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	4	9	4	1	0	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	3.0	1	0	0	0	4	34
E. CastellanoRP	3.0	4	3	2	2	0	45
K. EatonP	3.0	3	0	0	1	5	46
Team	9.0	8	3	2	3	9	125

Team

CHC

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs CHC.