
LAD
14-7

CHW
13-9-1
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
CHW
.784
OPS
.718
.738
.345
OBP
.319
.322
5.27
Runs / G
4.50
4.78
3.43
Team ERA
4.17
4.25
1.11
WHIP
1.31
1.33
9.0
K / 9
8.5
8.4
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CHW wins
LAD 2 · CHW 7 (by 5)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CHW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
LAD · top performer

Zachary Ehrhard
OF
3-2
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
CHW · top performer

Luisangel Acuna
CF
3-2
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 4th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .406 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .200 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .313 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .450 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .348 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .129 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .194 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .326 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .182 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .136 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .292 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .308 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .276 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .294 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 31 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 68 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| 2.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 30 | |
| Team | 6.1 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 115 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .206 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .308 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .182 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .351 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .294 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .464 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .263 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .240 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .313 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .348 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .429 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .280 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 33 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 46 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 25 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 153 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantLAD
CHW
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
10
2
Runs
7
2
Errors
0
Team stats
LAD
Away
Stat
CHW
Home
2
Runs
7
6
Hits
10
2
Errors
0
8
TB
17
0
HR
0
7
BB
4
8
K
9
18
LOB
20
Season series
Series tied 1-1
How it ended
CHW beat LAD 7-2. L. Acuna led the way — 2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS.
Win probability
CHW vs LAD
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBetts · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Pages out at second.
Pereira · struck out swinging.
Tucker · lined out to center.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CHW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 7 |
Period scoring
LAD won 1 · CHW won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Mead 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Tucker 3
Inn 5
Inn 6
Freeland 1
Inn 7
Fitzgerald 1
Quero 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 570 plays
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Tibbs III struck out swinging.
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
+1pp
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Tyson Miller pitches to James Tibbs III
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Harlan walked, Fitzgerald to second, Myers to third.
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
−0.8pp
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Tyson Miller pitches to Chase Harlan
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Fitzgerald singled to left, Myers to second.
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Tyson Miller pitches to Ryan Fitzgerald
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Myers grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Newell out at second.
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Tyson Miller pitches to Kole Myers
· ·
LAD 2·CHW 7
·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Newell walked.
·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Pitch 8 : Ball 4
·
LAD 2·CHW 7
Recap · MLB
hicago White Sox held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 7–2.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands