Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+5TOR

MIN

7-12-1

TOR

8-10-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

5,743 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.1± 1.2high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

TOR

.734

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

4.86

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.16

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

MIN 1 · TOR 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
TOR	2	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. RodenLF	.323	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.265	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. WallnerRF	.290	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
E. Wagaman1B	.233	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. OutmanCF	.269	1	0	0	0	0	3	1
R. KreidlerCF	.148	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. GraySS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. Urshela3B	.200	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. JacksonC	.077	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. MercedesCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RossSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.059	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. CardenasC	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RosarioRF	.364	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. HerreraSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Rucker2B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Thomason3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	6	1	0	10	9

Player

.323

.265

.290

.233

.269

.148

.222

.200

.077

.000

.000

.059

.231

.364

.000

.167

.125

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AbelSP	3.1	4	2	2	1	4	70
Z. KentRP	1.2	1	3	3	1	1	36
C. LawerysonRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	21
T. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	8
Team	8.0	6	6	6	2	10	135

Player

3.1

1.2

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.167	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.452	3	2	3	5	2	0	0
A. BargerRF	.269	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. SanchezRF	.206	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ValenzuelaC	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. Keys3B	.222	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.393	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. NimmalaSS	.227	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mendoza3B	.412	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Y. PinangoLF	.130	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. JimenezDH	.303	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
M. StrawRF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LukesRF	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. ClaseLF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. StubbsC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Tirotta3B	.192	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. KasevichSS	.321	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McAdoo2B	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	6	6	6	3	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PonceSP	2.0	2	0	0	4	2	59
M. PlassmeyerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. MilesRP	1.2	2	1	1	1	1	26
B. LittleRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	18
J. MantiplyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	25
C. SeaboldRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	22
J. ColemanP	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	26
Team	9.0	6	1	1	10	9	177

Team

MIN

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs MIN.