Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+1STL

HOU

7-10-3

STL

11-8-1

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

5,384 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

STL

.726

OPS

◀

.718

.717

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.50

Runs / G

4.50

4.47

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.26

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.35

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

HOU 4 · STL 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4
STL	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ColeLF	.192	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Altuve2B	.120	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. Paredes3B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.130	3	2	2	1	1	0	1
J. LoperfidoLF	.310	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
C. SmithRF	.286	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. TrammellCF	.296	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.200	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. SalazarC	.158	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MatthewsCF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SaccoSS	.077	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PowellSS	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PriceC	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WakefieldRF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Unroe2B	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	8	4	1	2	10

Player

.192

.120

.250

.130

.310

.286

.296

.200

.158

.222

.077

.286

.176

.333

.273

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. TengRP	3.0	1	1	1	2	2	49
B. AbreuRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	13
J.P. FranceSP	3.0	1	0	0	1	5	46
C. RoaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
A. WillinghamRP	0.2	1	2	0	1	1	13
Team	8.2	5	5	3	4	11	132

Player

3.0

1.0

3.0

1.0

0.2

Team

8.2

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. Scott IICF	.167	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
N. VelazquezLF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. PagesC	.095	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. KoperniakLF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.097	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.304	1	2	1	1	1	1	0
J. RivasSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. LedbetterCF	.556	3	0	2	2	0	1	0
T. Paige3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. PenaCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. YerzyC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. SojkaRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. HarrisSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PinoCF	.500	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.160	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. EncarnacionSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	5	5	5	2	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	4.0	6	4	4	1	5	74
A. LoveSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
J. RomeroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
J. BruihlRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	20
Team	9.0	8	4	4	2	10	139

Team

HOU

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs HOU.