Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+3PHI

BAL

8-10-2

811

PHI

7-11-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

10,378 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.1± 2.5low

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

PHI

.718

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.301

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.38

4.36

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.08

1.37

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

BAL 8 · PHI 11 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	0	1	8
PHI	2	1	0	0	5	1	2	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. KjerstadLF	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.281	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.320	4	2	2	5	1	0	1
B. Ramos3B	.286	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.231	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. Jackson2B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Estrada2B	.091	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BarreroSS	.107	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.091	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. GeorgeOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.222	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
T. Bowens1B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
W. AloySS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. IrishC	.800	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. O'FerrallSS	.364	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. HuffC	.174	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. HoneycuttCF	.556	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	8	10	8	2	3	9

Player

.235

.281

.320

.286

.231

.250

.091

.107

.091

.000

.222

.000

.500

.800

.364

.174

.556

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PovichSP	2.2	1	3	3	5	4	66
D. HeidRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
G. WolframRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
T. WellsRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	1	22
J. GlasseyRP	0.1	2	1	1	2	1	28
Y. CanoRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	21
J. KowarRP	1.0	1	2	0	0	1	25
C. HerberholzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	8.0	9	11	9	8	9	185

Player

2.2

0.1

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

185

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.160	1	2	0	1	0	3	0
B. Stott2B	.364	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. Bohm3B	.375	3	2	2	4	2	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
O. KempLF	.219	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
B. De La CruzOF	.333	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
G. StubbsC	.308	2	2	1	1	0	1	0
J. RojasCF	.174	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
P. LeonRF	.240	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. RodriguezSS	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PegueroSS	.160	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. CairoSS	.211	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. HerediaRF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. ReyesLF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Ware2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. McIntoshC	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. FergusLF	.500	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	11	9	10	2	8	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PainterSP	2.2	5	3	3	0	4	60
B. BeckelRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	9
T. BanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
T. DavidsonRP	1.0	2	4	4	3	0	26
T. RichardsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
T. MayzaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	8
Team	9.0	10	8	8	3	9	151

Team

BAL

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs BAL.