Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+6ARI

ARI

9-12

115

7-13-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

8,311 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium
Michael WachaKC
4.9± 2.3medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

.692

OPS

.718

▶

.707

.307

OBP

.319

▶

.316

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

4.20

4.33

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

7.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 11 · KC 5 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	5	11
KC	0	2	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarrosaCF	.250	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
I. Vargas1B	.364	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
D. CrisantesSS	.214	5	1	0	1	0	0	2
A.J. VukovichCF	.138	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
B. McLaughlin3B	.375	3	0	2	2	0	1	0
A. GarciaC	.150	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Luis2B	.200	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
D. JonesCF	.313	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. TroyLF	.375	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. OrtizOF	.222	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Pena2B	.400	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. AlpuriaOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. YoungbloodOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JosephaCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
I. LucianoC	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Santana3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rojas2B	.167	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
D. Serretti3B	.200	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		40	11	14	10	2	7	8

Player

.250

.364

.214

.138

.375

.150

.200

.313

.375

.222

.400

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.167

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	1.2	6	2	2	0	1	36
C. ReyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. SewaldRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
P. AbnerRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	13
A. HoffmannRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
K. StrowdRP	1.1	1	1	0	1	2	27
I. CampbellRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
B. JarvisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	10	5	4	2	9	141

Player

1.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. IsbelCF	.167	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
S. MarteRF	.400	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. JensenC	.296	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
B. Drury2B	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. WatersLF	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. India2B	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. RaveRF	.207	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
K. Newman3B	.233	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. RamírezC	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ScottLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MartinRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. CrossRF	.269	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. GonzalezCF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. Wilson2B	.158	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. TreshC	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CericeP	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. RicardoSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	10	4	1	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	3.1	4	4	4	3	6	58
S. PanziniSP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	14
N. CameronSP	4.0	8	2	2	0	2	68
H. OlivarezSP	0.1	1	5	5	3	0	24
C. JesseeRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	14	11	11	7	8	170

Team

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs ARI.