Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+2PIT

PIT

14-6

DET

4-11-4

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

6,122 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.5high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.2high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.4high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

DET

.755

OPS

◀

.718

.710

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.315

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

4.14

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.79

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 7 · DET 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	7
DET	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.333	2	1	1	1	0	2	0
T. CallihanLF	.200	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
K. GriffinSS	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. BartC	.120	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.320	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
R. Flores Jr.C	.111	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. GarciaRF	.500	4	2	2	2	1	0	0
D. FletcherRF	.233	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
A. WilliamsSS	.292	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. RossC	.455	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. De Los SantosSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RivasSS	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. PlazC	.500	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Gray3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. TaylorCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. White Jr.CF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TateOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. JarvisSS	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	7	11	7	1	8	10

Player

.333

.200

.200

.120

.320

.111

.500

.233

.292

.455

.500

.333

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ClevingerRP	4.1	1	2	2	4	5	67
J. LoeschornRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	12
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
C. DevenskiRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	10
J. WoodsRP	0.2	0	2	0	2	1	24
C. FulmerRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	23
Team	9.0	3	5	3	7	10	147

Player

4.1

0.2

1.0

0.1

0.2

2.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.133	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
K. McGonigleSS	.280	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Torkelson1B	.160	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. CarpenterRF	.214	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. GreeneLF	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. PerezRF	.167	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. Keith3B	.217	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. Jung3B	.346	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. RogersC	.261	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. StephensonCF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. PenneySS	.222	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. MeyersOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BigbieRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. OlivetoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RuckerSS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. HadeenSS	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. NidoC	.227	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	5	3	2	0	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MizeSP	3.0	6	6	6	4	2	67
C. FieldsP	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	10
B. HanifeeRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	9
B. BrieskeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
T. HoltonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
R. VanascoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
M. JimenezRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	3	21
Team	9.0	11	7	7	8	10	167

Team

PIT

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs PIT.