San Diego Padres vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+4SD

10-10

139

ATH

9-12

Hohokam Stadium · Mesa, Arizona

7,312 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.8± 2.8low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.7medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium
Alika WilliamsATH
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high
Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATH

.662

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.327

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.61

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.93

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 13 · ATH 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	3	2	0	1	0	0	0	5	2	13
ATH	0	0	0	7	0	0	1	0	1	9

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. JohnsonRF	.257	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
N. SchnellRF	.250	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. BowenRF	.297	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. Miranda3B	.394	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. Solak1B	.343	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. RodríguezRF	.296	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ReyesOF	.320	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. KarpathiosRF	.000	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
C. Dungan2B	.273	2	1	1	2	0	0	1
S. TaylorLF	.269	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.316	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. JacksonUN	.200	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
F. Acuna3B	.263	0	2	0	0	0	2	0
M. Castanon2B	.357	2	2	2	2	1	0	0
H. VilarC	.273	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		40	13	16	13	4	5	9

Player

.257

.250

.297

.394

.343

.296

.250

.320

.167

.000

.273

.269

.316

.200

.263

.357

.273

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	4.0	7	6	6	1	5	80
F. SanchezP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	17
J. EstradaRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	15
T. McKenzieRP	2.0	2	1	1	2	5	46
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	27
Team	9.0	12	9	9	6	14	185

Player

4.0

0.1

1.2

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

185

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.167	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
S. LangeliersC	.294	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.382	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
B. RookerDH	.324	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. WilsonSS	.207	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. McNeil2B	.321	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.429	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
H. BolteCF	.378	3	1	1	3	1	0	2
B. GuedezOF	.667	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
C. PittaroSS	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. DurringtonOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WynnsC	.280	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. FienC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Halter2B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. MonteroSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. BoserSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Sprague-LottSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. BuelvasOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. RamosOF	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		39	9	12	9	4	6	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CivaleSP	4.0	9	6	6	0	3	75
J. GarlandSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	9
N. AndersonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	13
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
H. HarrisRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	24
N. HernandezRP	0.0	1	4	4	3	0	23
C. PelhamRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	19
D. De JesusRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	23
Team	9.0	16	13	13	5	9	202

Team

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs SD.