Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+9KC

7-12-1

101

9-10

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

6,052 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium
Michael WachaKC
4.9± 2.3medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.707

OPS

◀

.718

.662

.316

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.83

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 10 · SD 1 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	6	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.290	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
K. MisnerCF	.286	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.308	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.286	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
L. TreshC	.278	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. CrossRF	.280	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. KaiserSS	.304	3	1	2	2	0	1	1
D. VazquezSS	.250	3	2	1	1	0	1	0
D. DickersonSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
H. UmC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. MartinRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. TorresCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Johnson2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. BrownC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GentryRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Becker1B	.167	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PinedaSS	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. SquiresOF	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		38	10	12	8	0	6	13

Player

.290

.286

.308

.286

.278

.280

.304

.250

.500

.333

.000

.000

.000

.182

.200

.167

.300

.308

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BubicSP	3.0	2	0	0	1	4	52
N. MearsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
L. ErcegRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
S. CruzRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	13
H. NerisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
E. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
B. JohnsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	21
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	7	130

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

130

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Cronenworth2B	.346	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. LaureanoLF	.292	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
M. AndujarDH	.267	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. CastellanosRF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.367	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.409	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. TaylorLF	.269	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BowenRF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RodríguezRF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. ReyesOF	.318	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.148	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.344	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.367	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	5	1	1	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MarquezSP	1.2	4	6	6	4	1	56
S. WhitingRP	0.1	1	1	0	2	0	17
A. MorejonRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	23
J. SearsSP	4.0	5	3	3	0	6	77
D. MorganRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	18
Team	9.0	12	10	9	6	13	191

Team

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs KC.