Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+3PIT

ATL

12-5-2

PIT

13-6

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

5,427 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.5high

Total bases

Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.4high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

PIT

.720

OPS

.718

▶

.755

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.76

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.14

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

ATL 2 · PIT 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Harris IICF	.304	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. MateoSS	.148	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SmithDH	.381	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. FarmerDH	.417	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
B. GamelRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. WilliamsSS	.087	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. LeonC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. CamargoC	.200	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
P. ClohisyCF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. HartmanOF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Gil3B	.158	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Compton1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MillerSS	.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CareyOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JonesSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. McIntyreOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	2	2	1	3	11

Player

.304

.148

.381

.417

.250

.087

.000

.200

.231

.167

.158

.200

.750

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HolmesSP	5.0	0	0	0	1	9	64
J. PayampsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
T. ScottRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
B. EnlowSP	0.1	2	4	0	1	1	23
A. PilarRP	0.2	2	1	0	0	1	14
Team	8.0	5	5	0	2	13	127

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Horwitz1B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.350	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.227	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. OzunaDH	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. TrioloSS	.280	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Yorke3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
En. Valdez1B	.080	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. PolancoOF	.000	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
D. FletcherRF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.333	2	1	2	2	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.250	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. JarvisSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SanchezLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezC	.286	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Y. De Los SantosSS	.545	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Moss1B	.429	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	5	5	4	0	2	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ChandlerSP	5.0	1	1	1	1	8	66
E. SiskRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	21
C. SandersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
M. Darrell-HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
N. MurdockSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	2	2	2	3	11	121

Team

ATL

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs ATL.