Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+3MIN

BOS

8-10

MIN

7-11-1

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

6,466 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.1± 1.0low

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.1± 2.1high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high
Tsung-Che ChengBOS
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

MIN

.697

OPS

.718

▶

.734

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

3.70

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.86

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

BOS 5 · MIN 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	5
MIN	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	4	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Durbin3B	.304	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
T. StorySS	.400	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.409	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
C. WongC	.087	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. MonasterioSS	.348	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. Campbell2B	.194	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. WardCF	.419	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CastroCF	.310	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. HickeyC	.182	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. KingCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RosierRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. BaezC	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.097	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
V. Capra3B	.050	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. RomeroSS	.294	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		36	5	11	5	0	2	7

Player

.304

.400

.200

.409

.087

.348

.194

.419

.310

.182

.000

.250

.000

.500

.097

.050

.294

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EarlySP	3.2	5	2	1	1	1	62
R. WatsonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	27
K. KellerRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	15
N. SongSP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	14
J. WebbRP	0.1	1	3	3	2	1	24
R. SenaRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	1	18
Team	8.0	12	8	7	5	5	160

Player

3.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

160

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Lewis3B	.143	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.375	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.393	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. JeffersC	.179	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.174	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.300	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
O. ArciaSS	.250	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
A. JacksonC	.100	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
R. Doncon3B	.667	2	0	2	3	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.063	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. KendleOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RosarioRF	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GraySS	.250	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.222	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. HoughtonCF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
T. Schobel2B	.167	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	8	12	8	1	5	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. OberSP	2.2	5	1	1	1	2	53
C. BecerraRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. HendriksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
C. SandsRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19
K. FunderburkRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	32
E. OrzeRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	30
G. HartwigRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	11	5	5	2	7	165

Team

BOS

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs BOS.