Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

11-4-3

HOU

7-9-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,962 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.5± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

HOU

.741

OPS

◀

.718

.726

.319

OBP

.319

.316

5.28

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.69

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.39

WHIP

1.31

1.40

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 3 · HOU 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3
HOU	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. AbramsSS	.174	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.105	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.217	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
B. House3B	.440	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. Hassell IIICF	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Chaparro1B	.263	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. FranklinLF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. FelizSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JamesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. CabreraCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. AdamsC	.200	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. Lipscomb3B	.350	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. Brown1B	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. Morales1B	.063	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. McKenzieLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	8	2	1	3	13

Player

.174

.133

.105

.217

.440

.190

.286

.263

.333

.000

.000

.000

.200

.350

.100

.063

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. IrvinSP	3.1	5	2	2	0	4	51
C. BeeterRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5
K. WaldichukRP	2.2	2	0	0	0	6	41
J. RutledgeRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	10
P. PoulinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	4
G. McGarrySP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	14	126

Player

3.1

0.2

2.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ColeLF	.136	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. CorreaSS	.333	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.250	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.105	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.050	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.320	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MeyersCF	.095	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Biggers2B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. AllenSS	.227	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CallUN	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Unroe2B	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. PriceC	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Nelson3B	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SchiavoneC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. HernandezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. GarciaC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. WhitakerRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Winkler2B	.316	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. LoperfidoLF	.259	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	7	2	1	2	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	4.0	3	0	0	2	5	77
T. CosgroveRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	16
B. SousaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
B. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
R. MunozRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	3	2	1	0	1	20
Team	9.0	8	3	2	3	13	158

Team

WSH

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs WSH.