Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+3CHC

SEA

5-14-1

CHC

9-10

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

14,717 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.9high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Carson KellyCHC
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 3.4medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

CHC

.695

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.92

3.72

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.24

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

SEA 4 · CHC 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	4
CHC	0	0	2	0	1	0	4	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.417	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Young2B	.273	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. DavisCF	.344	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. RaleyRF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
V. RoblesRF	.111	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Wisdom3B	.276	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ArroyoSS	.300	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Rivas3B	.280	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
A. KniznerC	.158	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Wi. Wilson3B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rodden2B	.435	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. TaurekOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. ThomasLF	.444	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. ReetzC	.125	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. Taylor1B	.286	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. DavisLF	.500	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
A. St. Laurent3B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeredaC	.071	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	4	6	4	1	5	9

Player

.417

.273

.344

.231

.111

.276

.300

.280

.158

.286

.435

.000

.444

.125

.286

.500

.500

.071

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. HancockSP	4.0	4	2	2	0	5	56
C. LeguminaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	15
A. HoppeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	16
J. SimpsonRP	0.0	4	4	4	2	0	25
P. Alford1B	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20
T. TaylorRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	8.0	10	7	7	4	8	145

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Busch1B	.261	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
N. Hoerner2B	.263	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.190	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.368	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. KellyC	.364	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CarlsonLF	.360	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. McCormickLF	.242	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.333	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
J. RojasSS	.235	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
D. Ortiz3B	.250	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
S. Kingery3B	.188	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. EscobarSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. De LeonCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. AyersC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PalmerOF	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
O. Miller2B	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Simas3B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. LumpuyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	7	10	7	1	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	3.2	4	1	1	0	3	60
G. MooreRP	0.1	0	0	0	2	0	12
P. MatonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	24
C. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
J. NeelyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
T. BeedeRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	25
V. ReillyP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	6	4	4	5	9	166

Team

SEA

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs SEA.