Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+11COL

COL

10-8-1

132

ARI

8-12

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

10,481 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.0medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 2.1medium

Hits

TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.3± 0.8high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

ARI

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.692

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.307

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.22

5.47

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.33

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 13 · ARI 2 (by 11)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	1	3	8	0	0	1	13
ARI	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.267	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
B. DoyleCF	.412	3	3	2	2	0	1	0
H. GoodmanC	.111	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
T. Rumfield1B	.367	4	0	3	4	0	0	0
J. BeckLF	.273	1	0	0	0	0	3	1
K. Karros3B	.417	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Ritter2B	.371	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Stevens2B	.231	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. SullivanC	.480	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. CarriggCF	.400	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. CalazOF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. HinderleiderSS	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. HobsonCF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
K. HidalgoSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. BetancourtC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Amador2B	.235	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
N. Kent2B	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.250	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
J. CordovaC	.500	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		35	13	11	12	1	9	6

Player

.267

.412

.111

.367

.273

.417

.371

.231

.480

.400

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

.235

.222

.250

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrebbiaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
S. HalvorsenRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	23
J. HillRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	5	37
V. JuarezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	6	2	2	3	9	138

Player

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LawlarLF	.323	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.267	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
G. MorenoC	.179	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. McCannC	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Baker1B	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AmayaSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RobinsonLF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Groover1B	.316	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.257	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Walters2B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. ClarkSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Counsell2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. O'NeillC	.429	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RobertsOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
I. Melendez3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. CatuyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HurleyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Valdez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	6	2	1	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ClarkeRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	33
J. MorilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
D. JamesonRP	1.2	2	3	3	3	0	30
N. SavinoSP	0.1	3	1	1	1	1	17
B. GarciaRP	0.0	1	5	5	2	0	26
C. AndersonSP	0.1	2	3	3	2	0	24
J. CurtissRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	23
H. DurkeUN	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
G. CarrilloSP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	20
Team	9.0	11	13	13	9	6	191

Team

COL

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs COL.