Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 10, 2026

FINAL+1MIN

MIN

5-11-1

6-11-1

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

3,149 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

.734

OPS

.718

.730

.322

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.52

4.86

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 6 · TB 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	6
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.227	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. RodenLF	.348	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. JeffersC	.125	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Clemens1B	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. WallnerRF	.240	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. LeeSS	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. GraySS	.217	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. KreidlerCF	.190	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.067	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
K. RosarioRF	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BanuelosC	.286	1	1	1	3	0	0	0
A. Sabato1B	.231	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
M. HoughtonCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Salas2B	.400	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. CulpepperSS	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.182	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. RossSS	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	6	6	6	1	5	7

Player

.227

.348

.125

.286

.222

.240

.259

.217

.190

.067

.400

.286

.231

.000

.400

.235

.182

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RyanSP	3.0	2	0	0	2	0	48
C. SandsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	11
Z. KentRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
C. LawerysonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	22
T. BakerRP	0.1	3	3	3	2	0	30
J. WhorffP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
J. NowlinSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
J. WosinskiP	0.2	0	2	2	3	1	30
B. StullP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	7	5	5	9	4	182

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

182

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MullinsCF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. LuxLF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.357	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
H. FeducciaC	.111	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. SimpsonLF	.417	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. WallsSS	.385	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. DeLucaRF	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Morgan1B	.067	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. BarriosSS	.364	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Isaac1B	.273	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
R. ViladeRF	.267	1	2	1	1	0	1	0
A. MateoOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. PiperC	.300	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
B. JonesOF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Delgado2B	.167	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
H. Bush Jr.CF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.167	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Kinney2B	.048	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	7	5	0	9	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MatzSP	4.0	1	0	0	1	3	57
C. SulserRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	13
K. KellyRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	11
J. ScholtensRP	1.1	2	4	4	2	0	36
T. MartinRP	0.2	3	2	2	1	0	20
J. RockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	6	6	6	5	7	150

Team

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs MIN.