Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 10, 2026

FINAL+2WSH

WSH

9-4-3

MIA

6-9-1

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

2,059 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low
Zack LittellWSH
2.4± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

MIA

.742

OPS

◀

.718

.711

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.323

5.23

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

4.69

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.94

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 7 · MIA 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	3	1	7
MIA	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. AbramsSS	.150	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. WoodRF	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. CrewsRF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.100	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. House3B	.429	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
J. TenaDH	.143	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. MillasC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. Ortiz1B	.067	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
T. Lipscomb3B	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. ThomasRF	1.000	1	2	1	1	1	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.105	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. CruzSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Morales1B	.071	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. CoxRF	.000	1	1	0	1	0	0	1
R. DiazSS	.333	2	0	1	2	0	0	1
S. KingSS	.429	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. BarreraC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	7	9	7	3	4	19

Player

.150

.100

.125

.167

.100

.429

.143

.250

.067

.278

1.000

.105

.000

.071

.000

.333

.429

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GriffinSP	3.0	3	1	1	0	4	45
J. EderRP	2.2	3	2	1	3	2	54
P. AldonisRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	22
T. GottRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	21
Z. PenrodRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	22
Team	9.0	8	5	4	5	11	165

Player

3.0

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

165

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. Pauley3B	.385	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
E. RuizRF	.176	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. ConineLF	.286	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. MackC	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Berry1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. EtzelLF	.385	2	2	1	0	0	0	1
B. JonesCF	.267	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BastidasSS	.250	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. OlmsteadSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ClaytonSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
C. JohnsonSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Snyder3B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ShadeOF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. IgnoffoC	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. SalasSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CannarellaOF	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. O'DonnellCF	.375	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
D. GleedSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	8	4	1	5	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PerezSP	3.0	2	2	2	2	7	55
A. BenderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	20
A. NardiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
J. KingRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	3	22
M. PetersenRP	0.2	5	3	3	0	1	28
J. BiermanRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	11
S. JonesRP	1.0	0	1	0	0	2	18
Team	9.0	9	7	6	4	19	178

Team

WSH

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs WSH.