San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 10, 2026

FINAL+8SD

9-9

102

LAA

8-12

Tempe Diablo Stadium · Tempe, Arizona

6,572 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium
Walbert UrenaLAA
5.0± 1.5medium

Hits

Donovan WaltonLAA
1.3± 1.0high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Donovan WaltonLAA
2.4± 1.7high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
2.0± 2.1medium
Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

Donovan WaltonLAA
0.9± 1.0high
Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.2± 3.6low
Jose SorianoLAA
2.7± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAA

.662

OPS

.718

▶

.716

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.318

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 10 · LAA 2 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	2	0	5	0	1	0	1	1	10
LAA	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BowenRF	.281	4	1	1	4	1	0	1
B. JohnsonRF	.258	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. AndujarDH	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
F. FerminC	.421	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.355	3	2	2	0	0	0	1
J. Miranda3B	.367	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. ReyesOF	.333	2	1	2	3	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.154	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
S. TaylorLF	.304	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. KarpathiosRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. DurfeeC	.500	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. WidemanCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. VilarC	.300	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. RodríguezRF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Acuna3B	.263	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. Castanon2B	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Dungan2B	.250	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.211	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		39	10	15	10	2	3	11

Player

.281

.258

.286

.421

.355

.367

.333

.154

.304

.000

.500

.000

.300

.286

.286

.263

.250

.250

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	3.2	5	2	2	1	2	68
J. WolfSP	2.1	1	0	0	1	3	37
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
G. HawkinsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	21
F. PenaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
Team	9.0	8	2	2	3	8	166

Player

3.2

2.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

166

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.280	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TroutCF	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. SolerDH	.368	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. AdellRF	.286	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.296	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Candelario3B	.296	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. TaylorCF	.192	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
N. Madrigal3B	.333	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Y. Sanchez3B	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Paris2B	.292	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Mancini1B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Gobbel3B	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SiriCF	.160	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. RiveroC	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Walton3B	.368	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. RodriguezCF	.350	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	2	8	2	0	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. FarrisRP	3.2	8	7	7	1	6	64
J. SouthardRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
W. UrenaSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	26
R. ZeferjahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
T. SaucedoRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	29
H. YnoaSP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	21
Team	9.0	15	10	10	3	11	161

Team

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs SD.