Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 10, 2026

FINAL+1HOU

BAL

7-9-2

HOU

6-8-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

3,186 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

HOU

.718

OPS

.718

▶

.726

.319

OBP

.319

.316

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.38

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

BAL 6 · HOU 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	2	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	6
HOU	2	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.192	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CowserCF	.269	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Ramos3B	.235	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.500	4	1	4	5	1	0	0
R. Noda1B	.050	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BarreroSS	.087	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Vasquez3B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. RobertsonLF	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
V. HoneycuttCF	.625	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. SosaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. AndersonC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. WillemsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Bowens1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ButterworthSS	.143	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. O'FerrallSS	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JosenbergerLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	9	6	1	3	12

Player

.192

.269

.286

.235

.500

.050

.087

.125

.200

.625

.000

.000

.000

.000

.143

.300

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WellsP	3.2	3	2	2	1	1	66
J. WalkerRP	0.2	0	0	0	3	2	28
A. MagnoRP	1.0	2	4	2	1	2	33
Y. RiveraRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	17
E. TorresRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	4	27
G. OgandoRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	0	16
Team	8.2	8	7	5	7	11	187

Player

3.2

0.2

1.0

0.2

2.0

0.2

Team

8.2

187

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LoperfidoLF	.269	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Altuve2B	.105	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.077	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.059	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
C. SmithRF	.318	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.063	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Unroe2B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Biggers2B	.143	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
J. Winkler2B	.353	2	1	1	3	0	0	1
J. ThomasOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. GarciaC	.167	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. PriceC	.214	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. BrutcherCF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. TrujilloC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PérezC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Nelson3B	.250	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. WhitakerRF	.000	1	1	0	1	0	0	1
Team		34	7	8	7	0	7	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. McCullers Jr.SP	3.0	3	2	2	1	4	52
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
B. KingRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	26
R. MunozRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	20
A. WillinghamRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	2	27
M. KnorrRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	24
T. CosgroveRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20
Team	9.0	9	6	6	3	12	182

Team

BAL

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs BAL.