San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 10, 2026

FINAL+1SF

14-3

CLE

9-9-1

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

4,844 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium

Hits

Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Luis ArraezSF
1.2± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Rafael DeversSF
2.2± 2.7high
Casey SchmittSF
2.0± 2.3high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 3.1high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low
Travis BazzanaCLE
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Tyler MahleSF
3.1± 4.0low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CLE

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.676

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.312

4.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

4.31

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.75

1.36

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 5 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	1	5
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BrennanLF	.381	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. OlivaCF	.375	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RodríguezC	.364	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. EldridgeDH	.259	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
C. SchmittLF	.310	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. MatosRF	.321	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Harber3B	.273	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. Fitzgerald2B	.154	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
D. GilbertCF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Holton1B	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. HaaseC	.227	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
D. SusacC	.318	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. McCrayCF	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CoxCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Furman2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DavidsonLF	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Kennedy1B	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CartayaC	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. GavelloC	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. MeolaSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.407	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	5	7	3	1	4	11

Player

.381

.375

.364

.259

.310

.321

.273

.154

.250

.280

.227

.318

.227

.000

.200

.214

.300

.250

.000

.000

.407

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SeymourRP	4.0	2	1	1	1	3	57
M. GageRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
H. BirdsongRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	21
B. RoxbyP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
T. HarrisRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
G. MaldonadoSP	0.2	2	3	3	3	1	25
R. EstradaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
Team	9.0	5	4	4	6	6	144

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.292	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.346	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Ramirez3B	.217	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauterRF	.438	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. FryRF	.095	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.320	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. KayfusLF	.150	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.429	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezRF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kieboom3B	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. IngleC	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LampeCF	.222	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. NunezC	.333	1	1	1	2	1	1	0
G. RodriguezSS	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. TolentinoSS	.214	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Brito2B	.211	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. CesariniOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	4	5	3	1	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	3.2	4	3	0	0	6	71
S. PerezP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	6
P. PalletteRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	13
C. HoldermanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
P. AvilaRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	28
T. StephanRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	1	22
M. EllertsRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
Team	9.0	7	5	2	4	11	158

Team

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs SF.