Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL+5STL

BAL

7-8-2

STL

9-5-1

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,122 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Shane BazBAL
5.1± 2.9medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
1.1± 0.7high
Masyn WinnSTL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.6± 2.8high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

STL

.715

OPS

.718

.717

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.47

4.38

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.26

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.35

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

BAL 2 · STL 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
STL	0	0	2	0	0	2	3	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Alexander3B	.227	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
H. KjerstadLF	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Mayo3B	.409	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. TaverasCF	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. NoelRF	.400	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
T. Estrada2B	.059	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Noda1B	.059	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
S. HuffC	.182	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
W. RobertsonLF	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. AndersonC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Bowens1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. HoneycuttCF	.714	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. SosaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. O'FerrallSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. ButterworthSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	6	2	1	1	14

Player

.227

.269

.409

.250

.400

.059

.059

.182

.176

.000

.000

.143

.714

.000

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GibsonSP	4.0	1	2	2	2	1	53
N. GermanSP	3.0	4	5	5	1	3	53
C. TaveraRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	8.0	6	7	7	3	5	123

Player

T. GibsonSP

4.0

N. GermanSP

3.0

C. TaveraRP

1.0

Team

8.0

123

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.188	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Wetherholt2B	.278	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
R. Urias3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. PozoC	.389	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.111	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
Jo. BáezRF	.333	3	2	1	2	1	0	1
C. DavisCF	.273	3	2	2	3	2	0	1
M. Villarroel2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. MadrisOF	.200	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. GazdarSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. KrossC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. CamposC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. UguetoLF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. PetrutzOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. LedbetterCF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	7	6	7	4	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LiberatoreSP	5.0	5	2	2	0	7	65
M. SvansonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
R. FernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	16
C. RoycroftRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
G. SorianoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	6	2	2	1	14	119

Team

BAL

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs BAL.