
LAA
8-11

SF
13-3
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · SF favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
SF
.716
OPS
.718
▶.725
.318
OBP
.319
.308
4.54
Runs / G
4.50
4.06
4.59
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.31
1.40
WHIP
1.31
▶1.36
8.9
K / 9
8.5
7.9
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAA wins
LAA 2 · SF 0 (by 2)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
LAA · top performer
Gabriel Davalillo
C
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
SF · top performer

Casey Schmitt
LF
2-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 9th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .353 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .238 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .304 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .192 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .219 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .150 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .321 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .346 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .353 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .350 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .154 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .154 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 27 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 34 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 104 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .333 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .154 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .346 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .238 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .381 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .385 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .474 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .211 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .263 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .316 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .292 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .290 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .360 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 29 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 56 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 135 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantLAA
SF
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
Hits
3
2
Runs
0
0
Errors
1
Team stats
LAA
Away
Stat
SF
Home
2
Runs
0
4
Hits
3
0
Errors
1
4
TB
4
0
HR
0
4
BB
1
9
K
7
10
LOB
7
Season series
Series tied 1-1
How it ended
LAA beat SF 2-0. G. Davalillo led the way — 1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS. Davalillo's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
SF vs LAA
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMoore · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Grissom out at second.
Davalillo · singled to right, E. Rodriguez to third.
Kennedy · flied out to left.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
LAA won 1 · SF won 0
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Walton 1
Play-by-play · 498 plays
End of the 9th inning
LAA 2·SF 0
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
Kennedy flied out to left.BIG MOMENT
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
−11pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
George Klassen pitches to Buddy Kennedy
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
Cohen ran for Porter
·
LAA 2·SF 0
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
Porter hit by pitch, Harber to second.BIG MOMENT
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
+5pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
George Klassen pitches to Logan Porter
· ·
LAA 2·SF 0
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Harber walked.
·
LAA 2·SF 0
+4pp
Pitch 6 : Ball 4
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
LAA 2·SF 0
George Klassen pitches to Parks Harber
·
LAA 2·SF 0
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Furman struck out swinging.
·
LAA 2·SF 0
−3pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAA 2·SF 0
George Klassen pitches to Nate Furman
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Furman hit for Devers
·
LAA 2·SF 0
·
LAA 2·SF 0
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Angels went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 2–0.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 88 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands