Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL

6-10-1

DET

3-8-4

Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium · Lakeland, Florida

6,026 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.2high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium
Jack FlahertyDET
2.4± 1.6medium
Tarik SkubalDET
2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

DET

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.710

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

3.78

Team ERA

4.17

3.76

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 4 · DET 4 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	4
DET	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. WilliamsSS	.368	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. MeltonLF	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MalloyRF	.217	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
W. Simpson1B	.455	4	2	3	2	1	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.182	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.400	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. SabolC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Delgado2B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Taylor3B	.308	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
G. BarriosSS	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OvernOF	.125	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
M. TooleOF	.250	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
M. Horvath3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. BodineC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Pitre2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PerezSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	8	3	1	4	9

Player

.368

.174

.217

.455

.182

.400

.200

.143

.308

.400

.125

.250

.000

.333

.000

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. McClanahanSP	2.1	3	3	3	1	3	41
K. WhitleyRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	17
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20
J. WoodfordRP	2.1	2	1	1	1	1	27
A. WantzRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. BooserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
D. EdingtonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	9	4	4	2	8	135

Player

2.1

0.2

1.0

2.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. PerezRF	.059	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. BaezSS	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DinglerC	.182	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.200	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.211	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. CarpenterRF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. SlaterRF	.316	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. McGonigleSS	.350	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. PeckSS	.389	3	1	1	2	1	0	2
S. StephensonCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PenneySS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. NidoC	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BigbieRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MeyersOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. OlivetoC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. LeeOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RuckerSS	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. GrahamSS	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	9	4	2	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. ValdezSP	4.0	4	2	1	0	6	53
B. HurterRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	9
K. FinneganRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	20
C. PenaRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	29
W. VestRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	18
T. RaineyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
Team	9.0	8	4	3	4	9	141

Team

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

DET vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs TB.