Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 8, 2026

FINAL+5TOR

DET

3-8-3

TOR

6-8-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

6,187 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.7± 3.5medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.1± 1.2high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.0± 0.7high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Dillon DinglerDET
2.1± 2.2high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

TOR

.709

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.13

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.06

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.12

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

DET 0 · TOR 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOR	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.091	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. McKinstry2B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. VierlingCF	.444	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.263	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
T. CruzCF	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Anderson2B	.208	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Jung3B	.364	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JulksLF	.429	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. NidoC	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. StephensonCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. HadeenSS	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. CallahanLF	.600	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. CamposOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Workman3B	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. GoodmanSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Jenkins1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. ClarkCF	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. ValenciaC	.353	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	0	7	0	0	2	8

Player

.091

.267

.444

.263

.263

.208

.364

.429

.235

.000

.400

.600

.000

.125

.000

.000

.111

.353

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SammonsRP	2.2	2	4	4	2	1	57
J. SimonRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	9
T. MattisonSP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	26
S. GuentherRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21
K. PilkingtonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
C. WaitesRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
M. JimenezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
Team	8.0	7	5	5	5	6	158

Player

2.2

0.1

0.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.333	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. LukesRF	.211	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. SchneiderLF	.053	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.409	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.273	3	1	2	3	1	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.273	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. ClaseLF	.294	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. KasevichSS	.381	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.190	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BohrofenOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.231	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CaseyOF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Doughty3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. BrooksC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. WardRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Goodwin2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. HornungOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	5	7	5	1	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP	3.1	3	0	0	0	3	52
A. BastardoRP	1.2	1	0	0	2	0	31
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	5
J. HahnRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
S. MilesRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	26
T. AndrewsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	7	0	0	2	8	132

Team

DET

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs DET.