Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 8, 2026

FINAL+1TB

ATL

10-3-2

6-10

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

4,172 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Bryce ElderATL
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

.720

OPS

.718

▶

.730

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.52

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.78

1.21

WHIP

1.31

1.20

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

ATL 8 · TB 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	8
TB	1	5	0	0	1	0	0	2	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WilliamsSS	.118	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
D. SmithDH	.438	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
J. MateoSS	.158	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. GamelRF	.278	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
K. FarmerDH	.444	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. LeonC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. SchunkSS	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AzocarRF	.381	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. Williams2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Compton1B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Gil3B	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. MaciasOF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. WorkingerLF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JonesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CamargoC	.143	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
P. ClohisyCF	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	8	12	8	4	1	10

Player

.118

.438

.158

.278

.444

.238

.000

.200

.381

.000

.167

.188

.000

.250

.000

.143

.300

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	3.1	6	5	5	3	2	67
D. VinesSP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	17
F. McdonoughRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
J. WentzRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	13
R. BourassaRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	11
J. PayampsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18
T. LaPorteRP	1.2	3	2	1	0	3	27
A. PilarRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	8.0	14	9	8	6	6	162

Player

3.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.2

0.1

Team

8.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WallsSS	.417	4	2	3	1	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.308	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.318	4	1	2	4	1	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.118	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
N. FortesC	.286	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. DeLucaRF	.278	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. OlivaresRF	.050	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.241	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
X. Isaac1B	.200	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
R. GonzalezSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. MateoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Taylor3B	.273	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. DonayC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. LevinsC	.111	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. JonesOF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kinney2B	.053	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Simpson1B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	9	14	8	2	6	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WorkmanSP	2.2	8	5	5	0	3	56
H. BiggeRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	12
C. SoleskyRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	25
K. KellyRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	13
L. GuerreroRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	17
T. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
Team	9.0	12	8	8	1	10	135

Team

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs ATL.