Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 8, 2026

FINAL+11SD

CIN

7-7

314

8-8

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

5,510 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium
Walker BuehlerSD
4.5± 1.9medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

.699

OPS

◀

.718

.663

.310

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.25

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

4.59

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.88

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CIN 3 · SD 14 (by 11)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	3
SD	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	9	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MyersCF	.375	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. MarteRF	.217	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BledayLF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Stewart1B	.318	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
P.J. HigginsC	.167	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
W. BanfieldC	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Hampson2B	.056	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Urbaez2B	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. AllenCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. ConfidanLF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. SasakiCF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Ibarra1B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. NevilleOF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Callahan3B	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. DunoC	.250	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
D. PitelliSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. Stovall2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	3	5	3	1	4	7

Player

.375

.217

.300

.318

.200

.167

.333

.056

.250

.000

.500

.500

1.000

1.000

.000

.250

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BurnsSP	3.2	4	4	4	1	4	68
N. PetersonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
C. PettyRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	1	31
Z. MaxwellRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	3	25
K. AbelSP	0.1	0	4	4	4	0	29
J. LyonsRP	0.2	4	5	5	1	1	29
Team	8.0	10	14	13	8	9	187

Player

3.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

187

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Cronenworth2B	.364	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.333	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. CastellanosRF	.318	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
G. Sheets1B	.222	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.370	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. TaylorLF	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ReyesOF	.278	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
R. DuranC	.308	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. RodríguezRF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. Solak1B	.375	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. MearsRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.294	1	2	1	3	1	1	0
H. VilarC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Acuna3B	.235	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Castanon2B	.200	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. KarpathiosRF	.000	0	1	0	1	0	1	0
C. Dungan2B	.211	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		34	14	10	11	2	8	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GillaspieRP	4.0	2	0	0	2	2	59
K. HartRP	2.2	0	0	0	0	3	36
E. RoutzahnRP	0.1	1	2	2	0	0	11
J. YeagerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	24
M. CastroRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	20
Team	9.0	5	3	3	4	7	150

Team

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs CIN.