Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 8, 2026

FINAL+1MIN

PHI

5-9-1

MIN

4-10-1

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

8,903 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIN

.704

OPS

.718

▶

.734

.302

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.41

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

4.15

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.84

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

PHI 6 · MIN 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	6
MIN	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	0	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CrawfordCF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. KempLF	.280	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
B. MarshLF	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PegueroSS	.095	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. RojasCF	.111	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. LeonRF	.250	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
C. CairoSS	.188	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. PintoC	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. ReyesLF	.316	3	2	2	3	1	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.133	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Anthony1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.294	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. RickettsC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeMartiniSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. HerediaRF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. RinconSS	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Escobar2B	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MurrLF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	6	7	6	2	2	9

Player

.222

.280

.154

.095

.111

.250

.188

.182

.316

.133

.000

.294

.250

.143

.200

.235

.118

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. RangelRP	3.0	6	3	3	0	3	40
K. BackhusRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
T. MayzaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
T. RichardsRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	27
J. HernándezRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	25
A. McFarlaneSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	20
J. DallasP	0.2	0	1	1	1	1	22
Team	8.2	11	7	7	3	8	159

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

Team

8.2

159

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. RodenLF	.400	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WallnerRF	.227	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.217	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.235	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. JeffersC	.136	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Clemens1B	.333	3	1	2	2	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.292	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
E. RodriguezCF	.389	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. OutmanCF	.318	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.167	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
G. GonzalezRF	.438	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. CulpepperSS	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BanuelosC	.167	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
N. CardenasC	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. Schobel2B	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Sabato1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	11	7	1	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Woods RichardsonSP	4.0	1	1	1	0	5	42
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
A. ChafinRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	18
J. TopaRP	1.0	3	4	4	0	2	24
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
M. RayaSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
Team	9.0	7	6	6	2	9	132

Team

PHI

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs PHI.