St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 8, 2026

FINAL

STL

8-5-1

MIA

6-7-1

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

5,923 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.8± 1.8high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

MIA

.717

OPS

.718

.714

.324

OBP

.319

.323

4.47

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.29

4.26

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.97

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 2 · MIA 2 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
MIA	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. ChurchLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.182	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
P. PagesC	.143	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Y. PozoC	.438	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. VelazquezLF	.278	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. DavisCF	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Jordan3B	.053	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mendoza2B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.313	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HarrisSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. EncarnacionSS	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. ChoRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. TarlowC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. PeeteOF	.167	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. HoneymanLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PenaCF	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. FloresSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.167	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	0	2	6

Player

.200

.182

.143

.438

.278

.211

.053

.333

.313

.000

1.000

.000

.200

.167

.000

1.000

.000

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	4.0	2	1	1	1	3	64
R. StanekRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
J. RomeroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. BruihlRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	21
S. BlewettRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
G. MorenoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	8
Team	9.0	3	2	2	2	8	129

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

129

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. ConineLF	.278	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
C. Morel1B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.190	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Pauley3B	.364	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AcostaSS	.235	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NavarretoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Berry1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. CabaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jenkins-CowartOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Arroyo1B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. ColeyCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. AldermanRF	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MatheusSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JohnsonCF	.222	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. BastidasSS	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. IgnoffoC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	3	2	1	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. GarrettSP	3.0	1	1	1	1	2	37
R. GustoSP	3.0	1	0	0	1	2	43
L. BacharRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	1	27
Z. BrzykcyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	6	120

Team

STL

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs STL.