Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 8, 2026

FINAL+9CIN

ARI

7-9

413

CIN

7-6

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

6,007 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium
Andrew AbbottCIN
4.4± 1.6medium

Hits

Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.8high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

CIN

.692

OPS

.718

▶

.699

.307

OBP

.319

.310

4.18

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.25

4.31

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

7.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

ARI 4 · CIN 13 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	4
CIN	1	0	0	0	2	5	0	5	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LawlarLF	.348	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
T. TroyLF	.429	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. TawaLF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. McCannC	.133	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. Baker1B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.321	3	2	3	0	0	1	0
L. Groover1B	.281	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
J. AmayaSS	.318	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
Ó. MercadoRF	.318	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. FrancoLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DixSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Santana3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HurleyCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. O'NeillC	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Owusu-AsieduCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rojas2B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Valdez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	9	4	1	3	11

Player

.348

.429

.250

.133

.250

.321

.281

.318

.318

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

.200

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. JamesonRP	0.2	3	1	1	1	1	29
A. PerezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
K. GinkelRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
S. DubinRP	2.0	2	2	0	0	0	24
Ju. FernandezRP	0.1	6	5	5	0	0	17
W. ParedesSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	9
J. CurtissRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
T. RashiRP	0.1	1	2	1	0	1	11
S. GiestingSP	0.2	2	3	3	0	1	16
Team	8.0	14	13	10	2	6	151

Player

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

2.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.227	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. McLain2B	.545	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. De La CruzSS	.391	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. SteerLF	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.250	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. StephensonC	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Encarnacion-Strand1B	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. Hayes3B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. HindsRF	.400	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. JorgeCF	.200	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
R. TorresSS	.500	2	2	1	1	0	0	0
T. LewisSS	.600	2	2	2	2	1	0	0
R. McCrystalC	1.000	2	1	2	3	1	0	0
E. PinedaRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TrautweinC	.143	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Z. Warren1B	.500	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. Sanchez3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HendrickRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		40	13	14	13	4	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	3.0	2	0	0	2	3	58
E. PaganRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	19
T. SantillanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	17
L. MeyRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	2	22
G. AshcraftRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	2	16
D. McCaughanRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	18
Team	9.0	9	4	3	3	11	150

Team

ARI

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs ARI.