San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 8, 2026

FINAL+4SF

13-2

CHC

7-9

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

15,033 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Logan WebbSF
5.5± 1.5low

Hits

Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Rafael DeversSF
2.2± 2.7high
Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Carson KellyCHC
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 3.4medium
Tyler MahleSF
3.1± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHC

.725

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.88

4.29

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.22

1.36

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.9

K / 9

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 9 · CHC 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	3	0	9
CHC	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BrennanLF	.421	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RodríguezC	.368	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
B. EldridgeDH	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. MatosRF	.375	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.350	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. EncarnacionRF	.300	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
P. Harber3B	.263	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. Fitzgerald2B	.130	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. McCrayCF	.278	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. CartayaC	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.417	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. DavidsonLF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. HaaseC	.238	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. Kennedy1B	.333	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. HillCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
O. BasabeSS	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
N. Furman2B	.222	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		39	9	13	9	5	1	7

Player

.421

.368

.240

.375

.350

.333

.300

.263

.130

.278

.250

.417

.231

.238

.333

.000

.500

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. RouppSP	3.0	2	1	1	1	2	54
B. TidwellRP	1.2	5	4	4	2	4	53
J. ChoateSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. WinnRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
R. VanderheiP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	22
Team	9.0	7	5	5	3	10	147

Player

3.0

1.2

0.1

2.0

2.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Busch1B	.235	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. Hoerner2B	.267	2	2	1	0	0	1	1
I. HappLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.467	2	2	2	1	0	1	0
M. ConfortoDH	.273	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. BallesterosDH	.357	3	0	1	3	0	0	0
M. ShawRF	.308	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CarlsonLF	.400	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Kingery3B	.115	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Kalmer1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RojasSS	.259	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DeanCF	.120	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McCormickLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Miller2B	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. ArmasC	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. OpitzC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Cantrelle2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. AlcantaraDH	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	7	5	0	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
P. MatonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
H. MilnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
L. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
C. MartinRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	18
C. SchultzRP	0.2	5	4	4	0	0	29
V. ReillyP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	22
B. CapleP	1.2	5	3	3	0	1	40
T. BeedeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	9.0	13	9	9	1	7	166

Team

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs SF.