Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 8, 2026

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

5-8-2

BAL

7-7-2

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

6,360 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

BAL

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.715

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.318

4.06

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

4.12

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.38

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 1 · BAL 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. StrawRF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.240	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. JimenezDH	.321	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.100	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. McAdoo2B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Lantigua2B	.526	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. NimmalaSS	.250	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
R. Tirotta3B	.150	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. BarryCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.R. Freethy2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mendoza3B	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. PlanchartC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. MichelettiRF	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Toman3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Latta2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Harry2B	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CunninghamOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	7	1	0	5	9

Player

.200

.240

.321

.333

.100

.273

.526

.250

.150

.000

.000

.429

.000

.429

.250

.000

.250

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PonceSP	3.0	0	0	0	0	1	36
M. FluhartyRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	15
B. FisherRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	23
M. PlassmeyerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	16
J. ColemanP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
H. JuengerSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	7	119

Player

3.0

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

119

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CowserCF	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. WardLF	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.259	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. BasalloC	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. BeaversRF	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Ramos3B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.357	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BarreroSS	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. HoneycuttCF	.833	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FabianCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.417	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. HuffC	.150	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. WillemsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SosaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HightowerSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. ButterworthSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	0	5	0	0	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WellsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
J. KowarRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	21
E. ParedesRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
S. GongoraSP	1.2	1	0	0	4	2	45
J. GlasseyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. DzierwaP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
C. FosterRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
A. NunezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	7	1	1	5	9	144

Team

TOR

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs TOR.