
LAD
10-6

ATH
5-10
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.5%
ensemble · ATH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
ATH
.785
OPS
.718
.738
.346
OBP
.319
.328
5.24
Runs / G
4.50
4.59
3.45
Team ERA
4.17
4.93
1.12
WHIP
1.31
1.44
8.9
K / 9
8.5
8.5
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ATH wins
LAD 7 · ATH 11 (by 4)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
LAD · top performer

Alex Call
LF
3-2
AB-H
1
R
3
RBI
ATH · top performer
Leo De Vries
SS
4-2
AB-H
2
R
6
RBI
Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 5th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .500 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .391 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .500 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .182 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .167 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .300 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .156 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .344 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .273 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .310 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .063 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .267 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .346 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .313 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .375 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .222 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .083 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 34 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 43 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 30 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | |
| 1.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 155 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .400 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .269 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .190 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .190 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .385 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| .227 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .296 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .143 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| .238 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 38 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 40 | |
| 1.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 34 | |
| 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 151 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantLAD
ATH
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
9
Hits
14
7
Runs
11
1
Errors
0
Team stats
LAD
Away
Stat
ATH
Home
7
Runs
11
9
Hits
14
1
Errors
0
17
TB
23
2
HR
2
4
BB
2
8
K
10
14
LOB
14
Season series
ATH leads series 1-0
How it ended
ATH beat LAD 11-7. L. De Vries led the way — 2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS. De Vries's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).
Win probability
ATH vs LAD
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDe Vries · homered to right center (393 feet), Ibáñez scored, Thomas scored and B. Harris scored.
Ibáñez hit a ground rule double, Elliott scored.
Elliott · singled to right, Marlowe scored, Lasko to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ATH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | — | 11 |
Period scoring
LAD won 4 · ATH won 3
Inn 1
Pages 1
Inn 2
Senzel 1
Inn 3
Call 1
Inn 4
Call 2
Vries 2
Inn 5
Vries 4
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Thomas 2
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 605 plays
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Tibbs III struck out swinging.
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Steven Echavarria pitches to James Tibbs III
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Hope grounded out to third.
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
+0.5pp
Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Steven Echavarria pitches to Zyhir Hope
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Lockwood-Powell struck out looking.
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
+0.6pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Steven Echavarria pitches to Griffin Lockwood-Powell
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Echavarria relieved Z. Taylor
·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Angeles at third base.
LAD 7·ATH 11
Gouldsmith at second base.
LAD 7·ATH 11
Top of the 9th inning
LAD 7·ATH 11
End of the 8th inning
LAD 7·ATH 11
· ·
LAD 7·ATH 11
Recap · MLB
thletics held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 11–7.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 88 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands