MLBMid 8
SD 2@CHC 2
-11.8pppeak
MLBTop 7
MIA 6@COL 5
-28.1pplow
MLBTop 5
LAA 2@SEA 3
+24.7ppmedium
MLBTop 4
LAD 2@ATH 3
+32.1pphigh
MLBTop 5
SF 0@ARI 1
+34.9pphigh
MLBBot 9
MIN 5@HOU 1
-56.9pplow
TONIGHTGraded picks 2-4 so far (MLB 2-4)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Garcia Jr. (WSH): 3 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over BAL — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Gray (BOS): 7.1 IP · 9 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. O'Hearn (PIT): 3 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RF Matt Shaw on the 10-day IL (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Placed LHP Keegan Akin on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Placed LF Tyler Soderstrom on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
MLBMid 8
SD 2@CHC 2
-11.8pppeak
MLBTop 7
MIA 6@COL 5
-28.1pplow
MLBTop 5
LAA 2@SEA 3
+24.7ppmedium
MLBTop 4
LAD 2@ATH 3
+32.1pphigh
MLBTop 5
SF 0@ARI 1
+34.9pphigh
MLBBot 9
MIN 5@HOU 1
-56.9pplow
TONIGHTGraded picks 2-4 so far (MLB 2-4)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Garcia Jr. (WSH): 3 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over BAL — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Gray (BOS): 7.1 IP · 9 K in a win over NYY — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBR. O'Hearn (PIT): 3 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over CIN — Standout Index 91
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Placed RF Matt Shaw on the 10-day IL (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Placed LHP Keegan Akin on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Placed LF Tyler Soderstrom on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 28 (Jun 29)
HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4ATH
LAD

LAD

10-6

7
11
ATH

ATH

5-10

Hohokam Stadium · Mesa, Arizona
8,217 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

LAD

league avg

ATH

ATH

.785

OPS

◀

.718

.738

.346

OBP

◀

.319

.328

5.24

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.59

3.45

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.93

1.12

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

LAD 7 · ATH 11 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD1213000007
ATH0002410411

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 73-35
63%Last 30 · 300-180
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Mar 8·Final/SeriesATH leads series 1-0
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. HobbsLAD−43.8pp
  2. 2A. IbanezATH+42.5pp
  3. 3C. ElliottATH+42.2pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Call

Alex Call

LF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
L

Leo De Vries

SS

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

6

RBI

Game flowLAD ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CallLF
.5003123100
K. TuckerRF
.2003010001
A. PagesCF
.3913121100
S. Espinal3B
.5003000002
D. RushingC
.1822100010
A. Freeland2B
.1673110000
N. Senzel3B
.3001211020
R. WardLF
.1563011001
Z. EhrhardOF
.3443111000
- Z. HopeCF
.2732000000
- J. Tibbs IIIRF
.3102000002
- K. GeorgeCF
.0630000010
- R. Fitzgerald3B
.2671000000
- N. MillerSS
.3461000000
- E. AlfonzoC
.3131000000
- J. De PaulaRF
.3751000001
- E. HainlineSS
.2221000000
- G. Lockwood-PowellC
.0831000001
Team34797248

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WrobleskiSP
3.02000343
K. HurtRP
1.03220230
C. DayRP
0.22331022
C. HobbsRP
1.02211120
P. GervaseRP
1.10000320
J. WeemsRP
1.05440120
Team8.0141110210155

Batters

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Ibanez2B
.4005142000
S. LangeliersC
.2691000001
C. ThomasRF
.1905122002
B. Harris3B
.1903210011
L. De VriesSS
.3854226201
E. Angeles3B
.2274020000
C. MarloweOF
.2963110010
R. LaskoCF
.1434110003
C. ElliottLF
.2384211000
- G. GouldsmithSS
.0000100000
- C. ConnC
.0004000002
- J. Sprague-LottSS
.0001000000
Team381114112210

Pitchers

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LopezSP
2.03331140
M. KrookRP
1.15441134
K. HugginsSP
1.21000119
C. PelhamRP
1.00001115
Z. TaylorP
2.00001228
S. EchavarriaSP
1.00000215
Team9.097748151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • J. Wrobleski
    43 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      30%·95.6 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      21%·92.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Hurt
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      60%·96.4 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      40%·87.4 mph·11% whiff
  • C. Hobbs
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      45%·89.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      35%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Gervase
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      55%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      30%·82.6 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Weems
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·86.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      10%·83.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      5%·77.0 mph·0% whiff

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    40 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      38%·90.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      28%·79.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      18%·86.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      10%·82.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Krook
    34 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      59%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Taylor
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      21%·85.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.9 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Huggins
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      37%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      16%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Pelham
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Echavarria
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      33%·88.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·89.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

14

7

Runs

11

1

Errors

0

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

7

Runs

11

9

Hits

14

1

Errors

0

17

TB

23

2

HR

2

4

BB

2

8

K

10

14

LOB

14

Season series

ATH leads series 1-0

Mar 8LADLAD7@ATHATH11today
Mar 21ATHATH5@LADLAD5

How it ended

ATH beat LAD 11-7. L. De Vries led the way — 2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS. De Vries's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Win probability

ATH vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 5th Inning · 7-6
+27pp→ 36% WP

De Vries · homered to right center (393 feet), Ibáñez scored, Thomas scored and B. Harris scored.

ATHBottom 6th Inning · 7-7
+21pp→ 56% WP

Ibáñez hit a ground rule double, Elliott scored.

ATHBottom 8th Inning · 7-8
+25pp→ 92% WP

Elliott · singled to right, Marlowe scored, Lasko to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD1213000007
ATH00024104—11

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · ATH won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Pages 1

2
0

Inn 2

Senzel 1

1
0

Inn 3

Call 1

3
2

Inn 4

Call 2

Vries 2

0
4

Inn 5

Vries 4

0
1

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
4

Inn 8

Thomas 2

0

Inn 9

LAD
ATH

Play-by-play · 605 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  2. T9

    Tibbs III struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  8. T9

    Steven Echavarria pitches to James Tibbs III

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  9. T9

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  10. T9

    Hope grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

    +0.5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  18. T9

    Steven Echavarria pitches to Zyhir Hope

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  19. T9

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  20. T9

    Lockwood-Powell struck out looking.

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

    +0.6pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  24. T9

    Steven Echavarria pitches to Griffin Lockwood-Powell

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  25. T9

    Echavarria relieved Z. Taylor

    ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  26. T9

    Angeles at third base.

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  27. T9

    Gouldsmith at second base.

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAD 7·ATH 11

  30. B8

    · ·

    LAD 7·ATH 11

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 11–7.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Player projections

ATH vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.1± 2.7medium
  • Gage JumpATH
    5.8± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.4± 3.1low

Hits

  • Mookie BettsLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Tommy EdmanLAD
    1.2± 1.5low

Total bases

  • Mookie BettsLAD
    2.4± 2.5high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD
    0.8± 1.9high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.5± 2.0medium
  • Aaron CivaleATH
    2.9± 3.3low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands