Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 26, 2026

FINAL+2BOS

2-4

BOS

4-2

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

8,056 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 2.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Sonny GrayBOS
5.7± 3.4medium

Hits

Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Yandy DiazTB
1.4± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.2± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.9± 1.3high
Yandy DiazTB
1.9± 1.2high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.9high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
2.0± 2.3low
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium
Payton TolleBOS
1.8± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BOS

.735

OPS

◀

.719

.694

.339

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.59

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

3.78

Team ERA

4.18

3.76

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TB 5 · BOS 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	5
BOS	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. WilliamsSS	.400	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. MalloyRF	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.400	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
E. OlivaresRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.333	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Williamson2B	.375	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Delgado2B	.375	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
H. Bush Jr.CF	.200	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. KeeganC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. BarriosSS	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. SabolC	.250	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
W. Simpson1B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. TooleOF	1.000	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
B. JonesOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Davidson1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OvernOF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LevinsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	9	4	0	3	9

Player

.400

.200

.400

.000

.333

.375

.375

.200

.000

.286

.250

.500

1.000

.000

.250

.200

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MatzSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
C. SulserRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
T. NicholsP	0.2	2	6	0	2	0	--
J. LancasterRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	--
L. WorkmanSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
C. SoleskyRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	--
T. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
Team	8.0	8	7	1	5	6	0

Player

2.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. EatonOF	.455	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. StorySS	.444	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.375	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. Durbin3B	.286	2	1	1	2	0	1	0
C. WongC	.143	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. Campbell2B	.222	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
A. MonasterioSS	.250	3	1	0	1	0	0	0
A. CastroCF	.375	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. WardCF	.273	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
T. ChengSS	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Sogard3B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RomeroSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Capra3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.429	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. GonzalesCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. TaylorOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	7	8	7	0	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CrochetSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
G. WeissertRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
J. MoranRP	0.2	2	2	0	1	1	--
R. SenaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
P. TolleSP	1.2	3	2	2	0	0	--
C. BickerstaffRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
W. OldsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
D. SweetRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	--
Team	9.0	9	5	3	3	9	0

Team

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs TB.