HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
CHAMPION · NBANew York Knicks win the NBA Finals 4-1
CHAMPION · NHLCarolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup Final 4-2
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Schwarber (PHI): 4 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 97
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Bazzana (CLE): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBRed Sox: Placed 2B Isiah Kiner-Falefa on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 19 (Jun 20)
LAST NIGHT · MLBO. Albies (ATL): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over MIL
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Cantillo (CLE): 8.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over HOU
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Placed C Adley Rutschman on the 7-day IL, retroactive to June 19 (Jun 20)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. Cardoso (CHI): 26 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST against DAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST against ATL
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Sent LHP Matthew Boyd on a rehab assignment to South Bend (ML) (Jun 20)
TRANSACTION · WNBAMercury: Temporarily suspended G Jovana Nogic (Jun 20)
TRANSACTION · NHLBlue Jackets: Signed D Corson Ceulemans to a one-year, two-way contract (Jun 20)
TRANSACTION · NHLHurricanes: Signed F Nicolas Deslauriers to a two-year contract (Jun 20)
TONIGHT · WNBAWSH @ MIN, 6/21 - 6:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
CHAMPION · NBANew York Knicks win the NBA Finals 4-1
CHAMPION · NHLCarolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup Final 4-2
LAST NIGHT · MLBK. Schwarber (PHI): 4 H · 3 HR · 6 RBI in a win over NYM — Standout Index 97
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Bazzana (CLE): 4 H · 2 HR · 5 RBI in a win over HOU — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBRed Sox: Placed 2B Isiah Kiner-Falefa on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 19 (Jun 20)
LAST NIGHT · MLBO. Albies (ATL): 3 H · 2 HR · 3 RBI in a win over MIL
LAST NIGHT · MLBJ. Cantillo (CLE): 8.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over HOU
TRANSACTION · MLBOrioles: Placed C Adley Rutschman on the 7-day IL, retroactive to June 19 (Jun 20)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAK. Cardoso (CHI): 26 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST against DAL
LAST NIGHT · WNBAC. Clark (IND): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST against ATL
TRANSACTION · MLBCubs: Sent LHP Matthew Boyd on a rehab assignment to South Bend (ML) (Jun 20)
TRANSACTION · WNBAMercury: Temporarily suspended G Jovana Nogic (Jun 20)
TRANSACTION · NHLBlue Jackets: Signed D Corson Ceulemans to a one-year, two-way contract (Jun 20)
TRANSACTION · NHLHurricanes: Signed F Nicolas Deslauriers to a two-year contract (Jun 20)
TONIGHT · WNBAWSH @ MIN, 6/21 - 6:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
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Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres

ATL
ATL

ATL

48-27

PregameMon, 10:00 PM EDTESPN
SD
SD

SD

39-36

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Petco Park run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

SD +0.5 vs ATL -1.3 margin

SD brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Petco Park · San Diego, California
⤓

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

›

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Grant Holmes

Grant Holmes

SP · #66

4-3

W-L

4.33

ERA

1.40

WHIP

61

K

68.2

IP

Last 3 starts

vsSFL(4-3)2.0 IP3 ER2 K
@CHW-3.2 IP3 ER2 K
vsTORW(4-2)6.0 IP2 ER4 K

Home starter

Michael King

Michael King

SP · #34

4-6

W-L

3.60

ERA

1.19

WHIP

73

K

85.0

IP

Last 3 starts

@STLL(4-6)4.1 IP3 ER1 K
vsCIN-6.2 IP3 ER3 K
vsNYML(4-5)6.0 IP4 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob56% / 44%
LeanAway · 6pp
ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/22
TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

SD vs ATL.

SD is 5-5 recently; ATL is 4-6.

43.6%

model · SD win prob

Recent form

  • SD5–5+0.5
  • ATL4–6-1.3

Situational

  • SD2d rest
  • ATL2d rest
  • +0.0d differential

Rest is even. SD has 8 straight road games; ATL has 0.

Model angle

Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

  • ▼Weather + park-0.3pp

Players to watch

  • Drake BaldwinATL
    2.1total bases · ±2.1

    Drake Baldwin · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.1 vs season 2.1.

  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.0total bases · ±2.5

    Matt Olson · 2 TB · last-10 2 vs season 2.1.

  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    2.0total bases · ±2.7

    Ozzie Albies · 2 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.7.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.7%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    46.2%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.0%

    P(SD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.4± 2.0low
  • Michael KingSD
    4.8± 2.9medium
  • Bryce ElderATL
    4.6± 3.0medium

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.4± 1.1low
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Drake BaldwinATL
    2.1± 2.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.0± 2.5high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    2.0± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Drake BaldwinATL
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Samad TaylorSD
    0.7± 1.7low

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.4± 3.2low
  • Randy VasquezSD
    2.8± 2.1medium
  • JR RitchieATL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

ATL

league avg

SD

SD

.740

OPS

◀

.719

.656

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.292

4.97

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

3.34

Team ERA

◀

4.19

3.90

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

The One modelLean
Mon, Jun 22
ATL

ATL★

Braves

55-32

vs56.4%ATL

SD

Padres

40-38

SD
ATL 56.4%win prob43.6% SD
ATL 1550 · SD 1499Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 59-33
61%Last 30 · 293-188
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jun 22·6/22 - 10:00 PM EDT/Seriesstarts 6/22

Preview · MLB

Atlanta Braves visit San Diego Padres Monday at 6/22 - 10:00 PM EDT.

The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

MLB · Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres · pregame

MLB · Box score

6/22 - 10:00 PM EDT

No player stats available yet.

No player stats available yet.

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

373

Runs

293

645

Hits

538

32

Errors

23

1074

TB

894

100

HR

78

225

BB

239

595

K

633

0

LOB

0

Season series

Series starts 6/22

Jun 23ATLATL@SDSDtoday
Jun 24ATLATL@SDSDupcoming
Jun 25ATLATL@SDSDupcoming
Jul 20SDSD@ATLATLupcoming
Jul 21SDSD@ATLATLupcoming
Jul 22SDSD@ATLATLupcoming
Jul 23SDSD@ATLATLupcoming

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
ATLATLSP
G. Holmes

G. Holmes

#66 · 4-3

ERA

4.33

K

61

SV

—

Last 3 starts

6/16vsSFSF2.0 IP · 3 ER · 2 KL(4-3)
6/9@CHWCHW3.2 IP · 3 ER · 2 K-
6/3vsTORTOR6.0 IP · 2 ER · 4 KW(4-2)
VS
SDSDSP
M. King

M. King

#34 · 4-6

ERA

3.60

K

73

SV

—

Last 3 starts

6/16@STLSTL4.1 IP · 3 ER · 1 KL(4-6)
6/10vsCINCIN6.2 IP · 3 ER · 3 K-
6/6vsNYMNYM6.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(4-5)

Scouting report

ATL @ SD

6/22 - 10:00 PM EDT

Rest going in

ATLStandard

2 days

last game Jun 20

SDStandard

2 days

last game Jun 20

Tale of the tape

ATLmetricSD

48-27

Record

39-36

#1

Conf rank

#6

+1.4

Pt diff

-0.1

W2

Streak

W1

4-6

Last 10

5-5

Bullpen used yesterday

ATL

3.3 bullpen IP · heavy

  • D. Fuentes1.1 IP28 P
  • J. Karinchak1.0 IP10 P
  • D. Lee1.0 IP11 P

W 4-3 · Jun 20

SD

4.7 bullpen IP · heavy

  • K. Hart0.2 IP10 P
  • J. Adam1.0 IP28 P
  • A. Morejon2.0 IP35 P
  • M. Miller1.0 IP21 P

W 6-4 · Jun 20

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.