MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

PHI

38-32

MIL

42-26

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

40,157 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIL no-vig %

56.3%

open 53.2% · +3.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
59.9%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.6%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.5%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.10

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-126

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.8pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

MIL

★ best

+108DraftKings

edge +15.8pp · implied 45.1%

Book	PHI	MIL	Best edge
DraftKings	-141	+108★	+15.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.6± 3.1low
Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.6± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.2± 0.8high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
3.2± 3.5high
Jake BauersMIL
2.1± 2.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 2.2high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.1± 1.6high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 1.5high
Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIL

.681

OPS

.717

▶

.734

.296

OBP

.319

▶

.340

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.11

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.45

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 9 · MIL 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	1	0	2	0	5	0	1	0	9
MIL	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	3	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. SchwarberDH	.247	5	0	3	0	0	1	2
T. TurnerSS	.222	6	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Harper1B	.260	3	1	0	1	0	1	2
A. Bohm3B	.222	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. MarshLF	.328	5	2	3	1	0	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.223	4	2	3	1	1	0	1
B. Stott2B	.231	5	2	2	2	0	0	2
J.T. RealmutoC	.210	4	1	3	4	1	1	0
D. HillRF	.200	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
J. CrawfordCF	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		43	9	17	9	2	3	15

Player

AVG

RBI

.247

.222

.260

.222

.328

.223

.231

.210

.200

.227

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. NolaSP	4.2	6	3	3	2	3	85
T. MayzaRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	5
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	15
B. KellerRP	1.0	3	3	3	2	1	32
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	12	8	8	4	6	165

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

165

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. YelichDH	.279	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
J. ChourioLF	.318	5	2	4	4	2	0	0
B. Turang2B	.261	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. ContrerasC	.291	5	1	3	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.276	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. MitchellCF	.251	5	2	2	2	1	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.229	3	1	0	0	0	2	0
D. HamiltonSS	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OrtizSS	.204	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. SanchezDH	.226	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Rengifo3B	.204	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.366	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		38	8	12	7	3	4	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. DrohanRP	5.0	8	4	4	0	7	78
C. PatrickRP	1.0	5	4	4	0	1	39
D. RomSP	1.2	1	1	1	2	3	32
J. KuhnelRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	12
T. MegillRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	16
Team	9.0	17	9	9	3	15	177

Team

PHI

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

MIL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

MIL vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.