MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Nimmo doubled to center, Osuna scored and Langford scored, Jung to third. → win prob 78→90% TEX

TOP 5TH+4TEX

TEX

34-36

BOS

29-39

MLB · At bat

Top 50-02 outs

Pitcher· BOS

G. Weissert

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· TEX

W. Langford

1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI

LastGreg Weissert pitches to Wyatt Langford

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

70.3%

TEX wins · current

Pre-game: 51.0% TEX

TEX 6 · 2 BOS

TEX +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsBOS leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingTEXTop 4th Inning · 6-2
+12pp→ 90% WP
Nimmo · doubled to center, Osuna scored and Langford scored, Jung to third.
SwingTEXTop 4th Inning · 4-2
+12pp→ 68% WP
Higashioka · grounded out to first.
SwingBOSBottom 3rd Inning · 4-2
+12pp→ 45% WP
Yoshida · doubled to right.
SwingBOSBottom 2nd Inning · 4-1
+8pp→ 27% WP
Contreras · homered to left (337 feet).
SwingTEXTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+20pp→ 81% WP
Higashioka · homered to left center (381 feet), Foscue scored and Freeman scored.

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.56

N. Eovaldi

5-7 · 4.26 ERA

C. Early

5-4 · 3.30 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BOS no-vig %

50.4%

open 50.4%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.3%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.3%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-49.2ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

BOS vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.8low

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.1high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.2± 1.3high
Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.6high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
2.4± 2.7high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Willson ContrerasBOS
0.7± 1.1high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.1± 2.7low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Joe RossTEX
2.7± 4.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

BOS

.704

OPS

.717

.698

.318

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

4.00

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.93

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

The One modelTossup

● Live

TEX★

Rangers

37-39

vs51.0%TEX

BOS

Red Sox

29-49

TEX 51.0%win prob49.0% BOS

TEX 1496 · BOS 1473Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
W. LangfordLF	.246	2	2	1	1	1	1	0
J. Jung3B	.308	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. NimmoRF	.255	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	.284	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Burger1B	.249	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Foscue2B	.268	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
C. Freeman3B	.444	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.228	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.255	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		25	6	11	6	2	2	3

Player

AVG

RBI

.246

.308

.255

.284

.249

.268

.444

.228

.255

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. EovaldiSP	4.0	4	2	2	1	3	58
Team	4.0	4	2	2	1	3	58

Player

N. EovaldiSP

4.0

Team

4.0

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. YoshidaDH	.242	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.288	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.298	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. DuranLF	.212	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.196	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.280	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.219	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.210	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		14	2	4	2	1	1	3