Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 10, 2026

FINAL+3PHI

PHI

37-31

TOR

33-36

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

35,733 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TOR no-vig %

42.8%

open 43.7% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
42.6%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.1%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.1%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+25.5pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

TOR

★ best

+473DraftKings

edge +25.5pp · implied 16.4%

Book	PHI	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	-810	+473★	+25.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium

Hits

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.0± 1.0high
Bryson StottPHI
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.6± 3.9high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high
George SpringerTOR
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.8± 1.9high
J.T. RealmutoPHI
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.2medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

TOR

.695

OPS

.719

.702

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.311

4.25

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

4.09

Team ERA

4.19

4.13

1.30

WHIP

1.31

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 7 · TOR 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	7
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SchwarberDH	.239	4	2	2	2	1	1	2
T. TurnerSS	.225	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
B. Harper1B	.267	4	3	2	1	1	1	0
B. MarshLF	.326	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Bohm3B	.226	5	1	2	3	1	0	0
B. Stott2B	.230	4	0	2	1	0	1	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.195	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. CrawfordCF	.232	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. BerroaRF	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	7	10	7	3	5	9

Player

.239

.225

.267

.326

.226

.230

.200

.195

.232

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	5.2	4	1	1	4	8	96
J. BowlanRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
C. ShugartRP	0.1	1	3	3	3	0	21
B. KellerRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
J. DuranRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	8	4	4	7	11	153

Player

5.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

153

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.204	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.282	3	0	1	1	0	2	0
E. Clement2B	.304	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
K. Okamoto3B	.230	3	0	0	1	0	1	2
Y. PinangoLF	.301	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ValenzuelaC	.252	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
C. McAdoo2B	.188	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. StrawRF	.257	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.311	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
A. GimenezSS	.220	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	8	4	0	7	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ScherzerSP	3.1	5	5	5	3	4	82
M. FluhartyRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	17
T. NanceRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21
B. FisherRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	27
S. MilesRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	17
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	10	7	7	5	9	194

Team

PHI

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.