Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 8, 2026

FINAL+3PHI

PHI

36-30

TOR

32-35

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

37,178 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

37.2%

open 38.4% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
42.3%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.8%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.8%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.36

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+158

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

37.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

TOR vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium

Hits

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.0± 1.0high
Bryson StottPHI
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.6± 3.9high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high
George SpringerTOR
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.8± 1.9high
J.T. RealmutoPHI
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.2medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

TOR

.695

OPS

.719

.702

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.311

4.25

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

4.09

Team ERA

4.19

4.13

1.30

WHIP

1.31

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 5 · TOR 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
TOR	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SchwarberDH	.238	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. TurnerSS	.226	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Harper1B	.261	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. MarshLF	.333	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.226	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.211	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. Stott2B	.220	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
A. GarciaRF	.200	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
E. Sosa2B	.204	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. CrawfordCF	.234	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	5	7	5	1	5	8

Player

.238

.226

.261

.333

.226

.211

.220

.200

.204

.234

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	7.0	4	2	2	1	10	107
B. KellerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	6	2	2	2	11	136

Player

C. SanchezSP

7.0

107

B. KellerRP

1.0

J. DuranRP

1.0

Team

9.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.202	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
N. LukesRF	.313	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.282	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Okamoto3B	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Clement2B	.309	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.224	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. StrawRF	.238	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. HeinemanC	.154	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.305	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. SanchezRF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.252	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	6	2	1	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. CorbinSP	3.0	4	5	5	4	3	79
A. MackoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19
S. Woods RichardsonSP	4.0	1	0	0	0	3	48
T. NanceRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	7	5	5	5	8	157

Team

PHI

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TOR vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TOR vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.