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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SF
SF

SF

18-24

6
2
LAD

LAD

24-18

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
50,029 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAD no-vig %

71.3%

open 70.9% · +0.4

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL75.3%66.9%LAD NO-VIG %May 11, 8 PMMay 12, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 6 · LAD 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0010203006
LAD1010000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.0pp

best edge · SF · DraftKings

SF

★ best
+247DraftKings

edge +11.0pp · implied 27.1%

LAD

no live price

BookSFLADBest edge
DraftKings+247★-346+11.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 97
    206
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 97
    223
    15(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    222
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 96
    72
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 95
    222
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    302
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, May 12·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasLAD -349

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 6–2.

SF +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Eric Haase

Eric Haase

C

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF18-24
6
2
LAD24-18
SF18-24·LAD24-18
SF

SF

18-24

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-55022001
SPRINT27.148
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000010
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-44000001
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010003
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-44110001
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT27.457
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
0-33000001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-22111101
SPRINT27.662
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
2-44222201
M. ChapmanM. Chapman3B
0-11000000
D. GilbertD. GilbertCF
1-22111001
SPRINT26.428
Team10-373761063111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
5.2322341
M. GageM. GageRP
0.1000010
J. PegueroJ. PegueroRP
0.2000000
S. HentgesS. HentgesRP
1.0100220
C. KilianC. KilianRP
1.1000010
Team9.0422581
LAD

LAD

24-18

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-44221111
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-22010020
SPRINT24.74
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-22010011
SPRINT26.123
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-22001010
SPRINT2744
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-44000002
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000001
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-44000002
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000001
Team4-2929242158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
6.1655083
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.2211100
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.0100010
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
1.0100020
Team9.010661113

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • J. Peguero
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      67%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.6 mph·— whiff

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

4

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 12SFSF9@LADLAD3
May 13SFSF6@LADLAD2today
May 14SFSF0@LADLAD4
May 15SFSF2@LADLAD5

Season series

SF leads series 4-1

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0
May 12SFSF9@LADLAD3
May 13SFSF6@LADLAD2today
May 14SFSF0@LADLAD4
May 15SFSF2@LADLAD5
Sep 19SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 27LADLAD@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+27327%
LADLAD-34978%

↘7· 5.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 5th Inning

SFSF
H. Bader

H. Bader

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 8 K · 5 ER · 6 H

How it ended

SF beat LAD 6-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+8pp→ 24% WP

Haase · homered to left center (393 feet).

SFTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+16pp→ 45% WP

Haase · homered to left center (384 feet).

SFTop 7th Inning · 6-2
+16pp→ 93% WP

Lee · doubled to right, Gilbert scored and Adames scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0010203006
LAD1010000002

Period scoring

SF won 2 · LAD won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Haase 1

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Bader 1

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Lee 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SF
LAD

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 6·LAD 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  3. B9

    Ohtani grounded out to second.

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  8. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  9. B9

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  10. B9

    Kim grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  15. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Hyeseong Kim

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  16. B9

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  17. B9

    Teoscar Hernández challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Teoscar Hernández called out on strikes.

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

    −1pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  21. B9

    Caleb Kilian pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SF 6·LAD 2

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SF 6·LAD 2

  24. T9

    · ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  25. T9

    Arraez flied out to center.

    · ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  28. T9

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Luis Arraez

    · ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  29. T9

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

  30. T9

    Lee reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    SF 6·LAD 2

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

6

Runs

2

10

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

21

TB

8

3

HR

1

1

BB

5

11

K

8

9

LOB

17

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·SF +273/LAD -349

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.80

CLV pp

Open price

+229

Close price

+238

Open no-vig

29.1%

Close no-vig

28.3%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

LAD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    60.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.4%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.7%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872