Matchup orbital
3
PHI
PHI
8-18
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
5
ATL
ATL
19-8
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ATL wins
PHI 3 · ATL 5 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked ATL +11pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
PHI8-18
PHI
19-8ATL
ATL
Recap · MLB
tlanta Braves held off Philadelphia Phillies, 5–3.
ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 1.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
ATL wins series 2-1
PHI3@ATL5todayPHI8@ATL5PHI2@ATL6Season series
ATL leads series 4-0
ATL9@PHI0ATL3@PHI1ATL4@PHI2PHI3@ATL5todayPHI8@ATL5PHI2@ATL6ATL@PHIupcomingATL@PHIupcomingATL@PHIupcomingATL@PHIupcomingPHI@ATLupcomingPHI@ATLupcomingPHI@ATLupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
ATL -1.5
Total
9.0
High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
PHI+13942%ATL-16863%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 6th Inning
PHI
T. Turner
SSBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS
A. Painter
SPStarting pitcher
5.2 IP · 1 K · 5 ER · 9 H · 2 BB
ATL
M. Harris II
CFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
G. Holmes
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 3 BB
How it ended
ATL beat PHI 5-3. Harris II's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).
Win probability
ATL vs PHI
Score progression
1 lead change
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactTurner · homered to right (375 feet), Stubbs scored.
Acu · ña Jr. homered to left (410 feet), White scored.
Harris II · doubled to center, Dubón and Smith scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
Period scoring
PHI won 1 · ATL won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Turner 2
Acu 2
Inn 4
Inn 5
Harper 1
Inn 6
II 2
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
- T9
Turner walked.
PHI 3·ATL 5
−9pp
- B6
Harris II doubled to center, Dubón and Smith scored.
PHI 3·ATL 4
+32pp
- T5
Harper homered to left center (389 feet).
PHI 3·ATL 2
−16pp
- T4
Schwarber struck out swinging.
PHI 2·ATL 2
+8pp
- B3
Acuña Jr. homered to left (410 feet), White scored.
PHI 2·ATL 2
+18pp
- T3
Turner homered to right (375 feet), Stubbs scored.
PHI 2·ATL 0
−19pp
Team stats
PHI
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
10
Hits
10
1
Errors
0
3
Runs
5
Player box score
PHI
8-18
T. Turner★
SS
OPS
1.933
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
K. Schwarber★
LF
OPS
0.200
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Harper★
1B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-5
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1
A. Garcia★
RF
OPS
1.200
H-AB
3-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Marsh★
LF
OPS
0.400
H-AB
1-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Stott★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Bohm★
3B
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Crawford★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
G. Stubbs★
C
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
10-37
R
3
RBI
3
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T. Turner★SS | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.933 |
K. Schwarber★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
B. Harper★1B | 1-5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 |
A. Garcia★RF | 3-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.200 |
B. Marsh★LF | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
B. Stott★2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
A. Bohm★3B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
J. Crawford★CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
G. Stubbs★C | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Team | 10-37 | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
A. Painter★
SP
IP
5.2
H
9
ER
5
K
1
K. Backhus
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0
C. Shugart
RP
IP
0.1
H
0
ER
0
K
0
T. Mayza
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
IP
8.0
H
10
ER
5
K
2
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
A. Painter★SP | 5.2 | 9 | 5 | 1 |
K. BackhusRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
C. ShugartRP | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T. MayzaRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 8.0 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
ATL
19-8
R. Acuna Jr.★
RF
OPS
1.933
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
D. Baldwin★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Olson★
1B
OPS
0.800
H-AB
2-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
O. Albies★
2B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Riley★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Smith★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Dubon★
SS
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Yastrzemski★
LF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
E. White★
CF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Harris II
CF
OPS
2.000
H-AB
1-1
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0
J. Mateo
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
10-35
R
5
RBI
4
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R. Acuna Jr.★RF | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.933 |
D. Baldwin★C | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
M. Olson★1B | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.800 |
O. Albies★2B | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
A. Riley★3B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
D. Smith★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
M. Dubon★SS | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
M. Yastrzemski★LF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
E. White★CF | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
M. Harris IICF | 1-1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.000 |
J. MateoSS | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 10-35 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — |
G. Holmes★
SP
IP
6.0
H
7
ER
3
K
4
A. Bummer
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
0
J. Payamps
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
0
R. Suarez
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
10
ER
3
K
5
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
G. Holmes★SP | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
A. BummerRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
J. PayampsRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
R. SuarezRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 10 | 3 | 5 |
Betting line
ATL -1.5·O/U 9·PHI +139/ATL -168