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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SD
COL

COL

6-8

2
5
SD

SD

8-6

Petco Park · San Diego, California
42,454 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

60.3%

open 60.3%

-1.0-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL64.3%56.3%SD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMJun 1, 12 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

COL 2 · SD 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +19pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0000000202
SD0000200035

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-171

Close price

-171

Open no-vig

60.3%

Close no-vig

60.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesSD wins series 4-0/VegasSD -171

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Colorado Rockies, 5–2.

SD -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1G. SheetsSD+34.8pp
  2. 2J. MejiaCOL−33.8pp
  3. 3H. GoodmanCOL+33.6pp

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Luis Campusano

Luis Campusano

C

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL6-8
2
5
SD8-6
COL6-8·SD8-6
COL

COL

6-8

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-3301000010.4
SPRINT26.225
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-4401000118.4
SPRINT27.148
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
0-220000013.8
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-440100018.6
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-440100019.3
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-4401000112.7
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
1-441100020.0
SPRINT28.483
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
0-330000004.0
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-330000005.8
H. GoodmanH. GoodmanC
1-1111100033.6
SPRINT27.148
J. BeckJ. BeckLF
1-1101101030.0
SPRINT28.175
Team8-3333282017—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
6.04220327.7
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
1.20002307.9
J. HillJ. HillRP
0.10000000.0
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
0.123310133.8
Team8.1655363—
SD

SD

8-6

5
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
1-330100115.7
SPRINT2872
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-440000007.9
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-4411000129.7
SPRINT28.688
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-3310001021.3
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
0-440000001.8
G. SheetsG. Sheets◆Multi-HR game★1B
2-4422420234.8
SPRINT26.735
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
0-330000012.5
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
2-2212111022.0
SPRINT25.818
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-3300000117.0
Team6-3030565336—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
6.030004028.2
K. HartK. HartRP
1.01001002.7
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
0.242200033.6
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
0.10000002.0
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.00000303.1
Team9.0822170—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • J. Adam
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      75%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

2

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 4-0

Apr 10COLCOL3@SDSD7
Apr 11COLCOL2@SDSD5today
Apr 12COLCOL5@SDSD9
Apr 12COLCOL2@SDSD7

Season series

SD leads series 2-0

Apr 10COLCOL3@SDSD7
Apr 11COLCOL2@SDSD5today
Apr 12COLCOL5@SDSD9
Apr 12COLCOL2@SDSD7
Apr 22SDSD1@COLCOL0
Apr 23SDSD3@COLCOL8
Apr 23SDSD10@COLCOL8
Jul 29COLCOL@SDSDupcoming
Jul 29COLCOL@SDSDupcoming
Sep 15SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 16SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 17SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 17SDSD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+14141%
SDSD-17163%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 8th Inning

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H

SDSD
L. Campusano

L. Campusano

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

SD beat COL 5-2. Beck's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

SD vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 5th Inning · 0-1
+18pp→ 80% WP

Sheets · homered to right center (416 feet).

COLTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+23pp→ 42% WP

Beck · singled to right, Goodman scored, Freeman to third.

SDBottom 9th Inning · 2-5
+19pp→ 100% WP

Sheets · homered to right center (434 feet), Merrill scored and Machado scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0000000202
SD0000200035

Period scoring

COL won 1 · SD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Sheets 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Goodman 1

0
3

Inn 9

Sheets 3

COL
SD

Play-by-play · 509 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    COL 2·SD 5

  2. B9

    Sheets homered to right center (434 feet), Merrill scored and Machado scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 5

    +19pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  5. B9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Gavin Sheets

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 5

  6. B9

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  7. B9

    Bogaerts flied out to right, Merrill to third.

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  14. B9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  15. B9

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  16. B9

    Machado walked, Merrill to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

    +8pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  25. B9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Manny Machado

    · ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  26. B9

    ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  27. B9

    Merrill singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 2·SD 2

    +6pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 2·SD 2

  30. B9

    Juan Mejia pitches to Jackson Merrill

    ·

    COL 2·SD 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

2

Runs

5

8

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

8

TB

16

0

HR

3

1

BB

3

7

K

6

12

LOB

10

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 8·COL +141/SD -171

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jordan BeckCOL · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.4± 2.7low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.5± 2.4low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    4.0± 3.7low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.7± 2.6low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    68.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.8%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    68.1%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 95
    273
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    272
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 92
    272
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 91
    275
    25(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 91
    270
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 90
    274
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs