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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2COL
COL

COL

16-23

9
7
PHI

PHI

17-22

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
39,478 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

PHI no-vig %

65.7%

open 64.5% · +1.2

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL69.7%59.6%PHI NO-VIG %May 7, 4 PMMay 8, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 9 · PHI 7 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
COL100500100029
PHI000002050007

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 9, 26sim 96
    273
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 93
    275
    25(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 89
    2713
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 88
    272
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 88
    270
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 88
    2710
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 8·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -232

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 9–7.

COL +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. LuzardoPHI−45.5pp
  2. 2V. VodnikCOL+45.4pp
  3. 3J. HergetCOL−43.4pp

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Justin Crawford

Justin Crawford

CF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
COL16-23
9
7
PHI17-22
COL16-23·PHI17-22
COL

COL

16-23

9
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
0-441000127.7
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
2-6612110238.4
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-6611100214.3
SPRINT24.85
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
4-551421014.6
SPRINT27.148
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
0-3310001114.3
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-5522000229.4
SPRINT27.969
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-4411200211.5
SPRINT27.251
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-550110037.7
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
0-220000118.6
E. JulienE. Julien2B
0-110000002.0
M. MoniakM. MoniakLF
0-1100000018.6
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
1-1111100037.8
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthyCF
1-110110001.5
Team13-444491392316—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
C. DollanderC. Dollander★SP
5.23225518.1
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.01000009.1
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.123311010.0
J. HergetJ. HergetRP
1.022202143.4
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
2.000012045.4
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.010001019.9
Team11.09777112—
PHI

PHI

17-22

7
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-6600000222.1
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-6611110417.5
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-4412002011.4
SPRINT2744
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-4410001226.9
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-3321102010.6
SPRINT28.175
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-5501100110.4
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-4411201136.3
SPRINT28.688
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-5500000038.8
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
3-4413211123.0
SPRINT29.798
Team9-41417972711—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
3.066536145.5
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
2.01000100.6
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
2.01110214.5
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.01000200.4
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.000002011.0
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.010001032.0
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.032102034.1
Team11.013973162—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • C. Dollander
    89 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.1 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      27%·97.1 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      9%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Herget
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      35%·77.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      15%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • V. Vodnik
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      40%·99.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      35%·93.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.5 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Mejia
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      39%·85.4 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·93.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hill
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      64%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·77.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      7%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·91.7 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    95 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      35%·85.3 mph·55% whiff
    • CH
      26%·85.7 mph·53% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.8 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      35%·97.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      30%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·90.0 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      45%·94.2 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      35%·86.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      20%·91.0 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      55%·97.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      40%·92.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      5%·96.8 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Keller
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      20%·93.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      10%·97.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      5%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Duran
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      38%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·99.4 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      19%·86.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      50%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      19%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      19%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

9

9

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

May 8COLCOL9@PHIPHI7today
May 9COLCOL3@PHIPHI9
May 10COLCOL0@PHIPHI6

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 3PHIPHI10@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI2@COLCOL1
Apr 5PHIPHI1@COLCOL4
May 8COLCOL9@PHIPHI7today
May 9COLCOL3@PHIPHI9
May 10COLCOL0@PHIPHI6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

COLCOL+18935%
PHIPHI-23270%

↘12· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 8th Inning

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

C. Dollander

C. Dollander

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 5 BB

PHIPHI
J. Crawford

J. Crawford

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

COL beat PHI 9-7. Crawford's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (45pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

PHI vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+19pp→ 74% WP

Goodman · homered to left (389 feet), Rumfield scored.

PHIBottom 8th Inning · 7-7
+45pp→ 59% WP

Crawford · homered to right center (361 feet), Stott scored.

COLTop 11th Inning · 8-7
+26pp→ 72% WP

Johnston · doubled to right, Castro scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
COL100500100029
PHI000002050007

Period scoring

COL won 4 · PHI won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Rumfield 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

5
0

Inn 4

Goodman 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Schwarber 1

1
0

Inn 7

Freeman 1

0
5

Inn 8

Stott 2

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

2
0

Inn 11

Johnston 1

COL
PHI

Play-by-play · 757 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    COL 9·PHI 7

  2. B11

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  3. B11

    Harper grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

    −12pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  5. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  6. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  7. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  8. B11

    Juan Mejia pitches to Bryce Harper

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  9. B11

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  10. B11

    Schwarber struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

    −12pp

  11. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  12. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  13. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  14. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  15. B11

    Juan Mejia pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  16. B11

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  17. B11

    Turner flied out to right, Sosa to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

    −11pp

  18. B11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  19. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  20. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  21. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  22. B11

    Juan Mejia pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  23. B11

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  24. B11

    Crawford reached on infield single to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

    +15pp

  25. B11

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  26. B11

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  27. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  28. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  29. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

  30. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 9·PHI 7

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

9

Runs

7

13

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

21

TB

17

2

HR

2

3

BB

7

16

K

11

22

LOB

28

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 7.5·COL +189/PHI -232

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.24

CLV pp

Open price

-207

Close price

-219

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

65.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.0± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.9± 1.8high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    4.0± 3.7low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    70.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    70.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    69.5%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.