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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
STL

STL

22-15

2
1
SD

SD

22-15

Petco Park · San Diego, California
44,966 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

-1.0-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL64.8%56.8%SD NO-VIG %May 6, 9 PMMay 7, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 2 · SD 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0001001002
SD1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 28, 26sim 98
    20
    14(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    301
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 96
    140
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    71
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    240
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    223
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, May 7·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasSD -169

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

STL +1.5 cashed (SD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL22-15
2
1
SD22-15
STL22-15·SD22-15
STL

STL

22-15

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-22000020
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-33000012
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-33111110
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-44120000
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-33000013
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT2872
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-44000001
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-44000001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.798
Team5-3030252158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LiberatoreM. Liberatore★SP
6.0311360
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0100010
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0000010
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000010
Team9.0411390
SD

SD

22-15

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-33000011
SPRINT28.688
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44010002
SPRINT26.530
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-33100010
SPRINT24.32
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-33020001
SPRINT28.483
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-33011001
SPRINT27.148
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-22000011
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-33000001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-33000002
R. DuranR. Duran★C
0-33000000
Team4-2727141039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
6.0111261
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.0211020
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0100200
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0100100
Team9.0522581

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • W. Peralta
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      86%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

4

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 8STLSTL2@SDSD1today
May 9STLSTL6@SDSD0
May 9STLSTL2@SDSD4
May 10STLSTL2@SDSD3

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

May 8STLSTL2@SDSD1today
May 9STLSTL6@SDSD0
May 9STLSTL2@SDSD4
May 10STLSTL2@SDSD3
Jun 15SDSD@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 16SDSD@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 17SDSD@STLSTLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+13942%
SDSD-16963%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 7th Inning

STLSTL
A. Burleson

A. Burleson

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

STL beat SD 2-1. Winn's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 38% WP

Burleson · homered to right (378 feet).

STLTop 7th Inning · 2-1
+25pp→ 71% WP

Winn · tripled to right, Walker scored.

STLBottom 7th Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 69% WP

Bogaerts · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0001001002
SD1000000001

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

2

Runs

1

5

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

12

TB

4

1

HR

0

5

BB

3

8

K

9

14

LOB

3

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 8·STL +139/SD -169

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Win probability

SD vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

STL won 2 · SD won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Bogaerts 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Burleson 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Winn 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

STL
SD

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 2·SD 1

  2. B9

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  3. B9

    Machado grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  8. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Manny Machado

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  9. B9

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  10. B9

    Andujar struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

    −7pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  15. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Miguel Andujar

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  16. B9

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  17. B9

    Merrill grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

    −9pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  20. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Jackson Merrill

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  21. B9

    O'Brien relieved Romero

    ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    STL 2·SD 1

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    STL 2·SD 1

  24. T9

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  25. T9

    Pagés flied out to center.

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

    +3pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  28. T9

    Jason Adam pitches to Pedro Pages

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  29. T9

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

  30. T9

    Church flied out to left.

    · ·

    STL 2·SD 1

    +3pp

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.9± 2.2high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.8± 3.1high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    55.2%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.6%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.