
SF
7-12

CIN
11-8
Line movement
8 snapshots
CIN spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
CIN no-vig %
52.2%
open 52.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SF wins
SF 3 · CIN 0 (by 3)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked CIN +10pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-120
Close price
-120
Open no-vig
52.2%
Close no-vig
52.2%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Recap · MLB
an Francisco Giants went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 3–0.
SF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SF · top performer

Jung Hoo Lee
RF
4-3
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
CIN · top performer

P.J. Higgins
C
2-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


SF
7-12
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 6-31 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
CIN
11-8
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT2744 | ||||||||
| Team | 1-26 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantSF
CIN
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
1
3
Runs
0
0
Errors
1
Current series
CIN wins series 2-1
Season series
CIN leads series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SF -1.5
Total
8.0
Defensive · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 7th Inning
J. Lee
RFBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS
L. Roupp
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB
P.J. Higgins
CBatter of the game
1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS
C. Burns
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB
How it ended
SF beat CIN 3-0. Chapman's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
CIN vs SF
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactArraez · safe at first on fielding error by shortstop De La Cruz.
Chapman · doubled to left, Arraez scored.
Schmitt · singled to center, Lee scored, Ramos to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
SF won 1 · CIN won 0
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Chapman 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 534 plays
End of the 9th inning
SF 3·CIN 0
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Stewart struck out swinging.
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
−2pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Patrick Bailey challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Matt McLain advances to 2nd on defensive indifference.
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
McLain to second on fielder's indifference.
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Erik Miller pitches to Sal Stewart
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
De La Cruz struck out looking.
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
−4pp
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
Erik Miller pitches to Elly De La Cruz
· ·
SF 3·CIN 0
·
SF 3·CIN 0
McLain walked.
·
SF 3·CIN 0
+3pp
Pitch 9 : Ball 4
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SF 3·CIN 0
Team stats
SF
Away
Stat
CIN
Home
3
Runs
0
6
Hits
1
0
Errors
1
7
TB
1
0
HR
0
2
BB
3
9
K
12
9
LOB
11
Betting line
SF -1.5·O/U 8·SF +100/CIN -120
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 73 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.1%
ensemble · CIN favored
Elo Static
59.6%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.2%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.6%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.75 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs