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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SF
SF

SF

7-12

3
0
CIN

CIN

11-8

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
16,898 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CIN no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

+2.0+1.0CIN SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL56.2%48.2%CIN NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 3 · CIN 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000003003
CIN0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1/VegasCIN -120

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Cincinnati Reds and beat them, 3–0.

SF -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
P.J. Higgins

P.J. Higgins

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF7-12
3
0
CIN11-8
SF7-12·CIN11-8
SF

SF

7-12

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44100000
SPRINT26.632
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.457
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44000002
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44111002
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
3-44131001
SPRINT27.148
W. BrennanW. Brennan★LF
0-22000000
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44011000
SPRINT2872
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-22000011
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33000002
H. RamosH. RamosLF
0-11000010
Team6-3131363029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
6.0100260
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0000010
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000020
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0000130
Team9.01003120
CIN

CIN

11-8

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-22000000
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-33000011
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-44000003
SPRINT2872
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-44000002
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-22000010
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-22000002
R. HindsR. Hinds★RF
0-33000001
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000001
P.J. HigginsP.J. Higgins★C
1-22010011
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-11000001
SPRINT2744
Team1-26260100312
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BurnsC. Burns★SP
6.0200140
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
0.2230020
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0100120
S. MollS. MollRP
0.2100010
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
0.2000000
Team9.0630290

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • L. Roupp
    87 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      43%·76.9 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      32%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      2%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Miller
    24 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      63%·85.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      29%·97.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Walker
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      71%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Winn
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      67%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·96.6 mph·— whiff

CIN

  • C. Burns
    87 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      63%·97.6 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      28%·90.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Phillips
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      83%·97.9 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      17%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Burke
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      33%·96.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Moll
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      55%·90.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      45%·80.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      60%·91.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      40%·96.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

1

3

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Apr 14SFSF1@CINCIN2
Apr 15SFSF3@CINCIN8
Apr 16SFSF3@CINCIN0today

Season series

CIN leads series 2-1

Apr 14SFSF1@CINCIN2
Apr 15SFSF3@CINCIN8
Apr 16SFSF3@CINCIN0today
Aug 25CINCIN@SFSFupcoming
Aug 26CINCIN@SFSFupcoming
Aug 26CINCIN@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+10050%
CINCIN-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 7th Inning

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

CINCIN
P.J. Higgins

P.J. Higgins

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SF beat CIN 3-0. Chapman's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CIN vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 7th Inning · 0-0
+20pp→ 54% WP

Arraez · safe at first on fielding error by shortstop De La Cruz.

SFTop 7th Inning · 1-0
+24pp→ 66% WP

Chapman · doubled to left, Arraez scored.

SFTop 7th Inning · 3-0
+9pp→ 89% WP

Schmitt · singled to center, Lee scored, Ramos to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000003003
CIN0000000000

Period scoring

SF won 1 · CIN won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Chapman 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SF
CIN

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 3·CIN 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  3. B9

    Stewart struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  7. B9

    Patrick Bailey challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Matt McLain advances to 2nd on defensive indifference.

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  8. B9

    McLain to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  11. B9

    Erik Miller pitches to Sal Stewart

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  12. B9

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  13. B9

    De La Cruz struck out looking.

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

    −4pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  19. B9

    Erik Miller pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  20. B9

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  21. B9

    McLain walked.

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

    +3pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball 4

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 3·CIN 0

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

3

Runs

0

6

Hits

1

0

Errors

1

7

TB

1

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

9

K

12

9

LOB

11

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 8·SF +100/CIN -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CIN vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    59.6%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.2%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.6%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 3, 26sim 96
    183
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    261
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 95
    200
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    260
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    44
    25(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    263
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs