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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SF
SF

SF

1-3

3
2
SD

SD

1-3

Petco Park · San Diego, California
43,611 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

SD no-vig %

51.7%

open 51.7%

+2.0+1.0SD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL55.7%47.7%SD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 3 · SD 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0012000003
SD0000000022

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 3, 26sim 95
    183
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    261
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    115
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 94
    263
    17(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 94
    72
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 94
    74
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Mon, Mar 30·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasSD -118

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

SD +1.5 cashed (SF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill

CF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF1-3
3
2
SD1-3
SF1-3·SD1-3
SF

SF

1-3

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT27.457
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-22000020
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000001
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-44000001
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-33100011
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.662
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-44011002
SPRINT24.32
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-33021000
SPRINT2872
Team6-3232363137
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
6.0200270
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0000000
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000030
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0122111
Team9.03223111
SD

SD

1-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33100012
SPRINT28.891
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT28.483
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44112100
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-22000002
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-22000012
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-33000002
L. CampusanoL. Campusano★C
0-22000000
M. AndujarM. AndujarDH
0-11000000
B. JohnsonB. JohnsonRF
0-11000001
Team3-29292321311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. BuehlerW. Buehler★SP
4.0533231
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0000000
D. MorganD. MorganRP
2.0100120
R. MarinaccioR. MarinaccioRP
2.0000020
Team9.0633371

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • D. Morgan
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      46%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Mar 31SFSF3@SDSD2today
Apr 1SFSF9@SDSD3
Apr 1SFSF1@SDSD7

Season series

SF leads series 1-0

Mar 31SFSF3@SDSD2today
Apr 1SFSF9@SDSD3
Apr 1SFSF1@SDSD7
May 5SDSD2@SFSF3
May 6SDSD10@SFSF5
May 6SDSD5@SFSF1
Jul 31SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 1SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 2SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Aug 2SFSF@SDSDupcoming
Sep 12SDSD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 12SDSD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 13SDSD@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF-10250%
SDSD-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SF -1.5↗SpreadBet SF -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 3rd Inning

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

SDSD
J. Merrill

J. Merrill

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

W. Buehler

W. Buehler

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SF beat SD 3-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 53% WP

Devers · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Adames out at second.

SFTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 62% WP

Bader · homered to left center (408 feet).

SFTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 73% WP

Bailey · singled to left, Chapman scored, Lee to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0012000003
SD0000000022

Period scoring

SF won 2 · SD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Bader 1

2
0

Inn 4

Bailey 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Merrill 2

SF
SD

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 3·SD 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  3. B9

    Bogaerts grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    SF 3·SD 2

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  8. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  9. B9

    ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  10. B9

    Merrill homered to right (387 feet), Cronenworth scored.

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 2

    +2pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  18. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 2

  19. B9

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  20. B9

    Machado grounded out to first, Cronenworth to second.

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

    −3pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  23. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Manny Machado

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  24. B9

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  25. B9

    Tatis Jr. struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

    −4pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·SD 0

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

SD

Home

3

Runs

2

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

10

TB

6

1

HR

1

3

BB

3

7

K

11

11

LOB

10

Betting line

SF -1.5·O/U 8.5·SF -102/SD -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    58.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.5%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.2%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.