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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+16BOS
BOS

BOS

10-17

17
1
BAL

BAL

13-14

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
33,582 attended

Line movement

26 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

BAL no-vig %

52.9%

open 52.9%

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL56.9%48.9%BAL NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 23, 10 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 17 · BAL 1 (by 16)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS030130001017
BAL0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    1111
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 95
    2313
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 94
    1212
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 13, 26sim 94
    297
    1(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    29
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 93
    1712
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+103

Close price

+103

Open no-vig

47.1%

Close no-vig

47.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 25·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -124

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 17–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 11.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS10-17
17
1
BAL13-14
BOS10-17·BAL13-14
BOS

BOS

10-17

17
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
3-55231011
SPRINT28.790
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-44225111
SPRINT26.838
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-66120000
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-66210002
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
3-66334100
SPRINT2744
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-55110001
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
2-44323111
SPRINT28.175
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-33113020
SPRINT27.354
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
2-55221001
Team17-4444171717357
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
6.0300270
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0210010
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0100010
T. SamaniegoT. SamaniegoRP
1.0000000
Team9.0610290
BAL

BAL

13-14

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-33020010
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000003
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000002
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.662
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.530
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-33001010
SPRINT2993
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-33010000
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-22000001
C. CowserC. CowserCF
0-11000001
Team6-3232161029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
1.2433220
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.1100010
A. SuarezA. SuarezRP
4.0240320
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0666021
W. WilsonW. Wilson3B
1.0444002
Team9.0171713573

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    90 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      59%·95.7 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      20%·83.7 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      6%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      3%·84.6 mph·— whiff
  • G. Weissert
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      29%·81.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      47%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.6 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      20%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·86.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.5 mph·— whiff

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    62 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.2 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      34%·87.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      18%·82.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.4 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Suarez
    59 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      42%·92.9 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      34%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·84.1 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.0 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Akin
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      47%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      34%·85.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Wilson
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • EP
      83%·48.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      17%·61.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Wells
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      35%·88.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      35%·93.0 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

17

Hits

6

17

Runs

1

1

Errors

3

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 24BOSBOS3@BALBAL10
Apr 25BOSBOS17@BALBAL1today
Apr 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL3

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 24BOSBOS3@BALBAL10
Apr 25BOSBOS17@BALBAL1today
Apr 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL3
Jun 2BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jun 3BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jun 4BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 20BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 21BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 22BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 3BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 4BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 5BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 6BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+10349%
BALBAL-12455%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 2nd Inning

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

BALBAL
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

A. Suarez

A. Suarez

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat BAL 17-1. BOS outscored the other side 10-0 in the 9th inning.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 61% WP

Kiner-Falefa · singled to left, Durbin scored, Wong to third.

BOSTop 5th Inning · 7-0
+9pp→ 98% WP

Wong · doubled to right, Durbin scored, Story scored and Monasterio scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS030130001017
BAL0000001001

Period scoring

BOS won 4 · BAL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Durbin 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Contreras 1

3
0

Inn 5

Wong 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Taveras 1

0
0

Inn 8

10
0

Inn 9

Contreras 4

BOS
BAL

Play-by-play · 645 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  3. B9

    Taveras flied out to center.

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  7. B9

    Tyler Samaniego pitches to Leody Taveras

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  8. B9

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  9. B9

    Jackson grounded out to second.

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  14. B9

    Tyler Samaniego pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  15. B9

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  16. B9

    O'Neill flied out to left.

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  22. B9

    Tyler Samaniego pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  23. B9

    Samaniego relieved Coulombe

    ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  24. B9

    Kiner-Falefa at shortstop.

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  25. B9

    Mayer at second base.

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  29. T9

    Monasterio flied out to right.

    · ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 17·BAL 1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

17

Runs

1

17

Hits

6

1

Errors

3

32

TB

7

3

HR

0

5

BB

2

7

K

9

14

LOB

14

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7·BOS +103/BAL -124

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    50.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.3%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.