Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 21, 2026

FINAL+6CIN

CIN

16-8

126

12-11

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

14,749 attended

Line movement

38 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
49.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.8%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.0± 2.4medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium
Shane McClanahanTB
5.0± 2.3low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.2± 0.9high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 0.8high
Blake DunnCIN
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Elly De La CruzCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Noelvi MarteCIN
1.8± 1.7high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
1.6± 2.7high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 2.1high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.7± 1.9high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.6± 3.3low
Brady SingerCIN
2.5± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

.700

OPS

.718

▶

.715

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.333

4.23

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.37

4.53

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.89

1.45

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.22

8.0

K / 9

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 12 · TB 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	2	2	0	0	1	4	2	0	1	12
TB	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MyersCF	.258	3	4	1	1	1	3	0
M. McLain2B	.209	6	1	2	1	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.276	6	3	3	5	2	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.299	4	0	2	3	0	1	0
E. SuarezDH	.241	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. SteerLF	.216	3	1	1	1	1	2	1
T. StephensonC	.158	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
R. HindsRF	.125	3	1	0	0	0	0	3
K. Hayes3B	.085	3	2	1	1	1	2	0
W. BensonRF	.188	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		37	12	10	12	5	10	11

Player

.258

.209

.276

.299

.241

.216

.158

.125

.085

.188

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BurnsSP	5.2	4	2	2	2	8	97
S. MollRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	28
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
K. NicolasRP	1.0	1	4	4	5	2	42
Team	9.0	8	6	6	7	12	184

Player

5.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

184

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.323	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Caminero3B	.261	4	2	2	0	0	1	1
J. Aranda1B	.229	3	2	1	3	1	2	1
Y. DiazDH	.322	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. FraleyRF	.229	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.156	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.270	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
H. FeducciaC	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. WallsSS	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Williamson2B	.241	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. DeLucaRF	.298	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
R. ViladeRF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	8	6	1	7	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. MatzSP	3.0	4	4	4	4	4	77
I. SeymourRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
G. JaxRP	1.1	1	2	2	1	3	29
H. BiggeRP	0.2	2	3	3	2	1	33
Y. GomezRP	2.0	2	2	2	2	2	40
B. Williamson2B	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	7
Team	9.0	10	12	12	10	11	201

Team

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.