• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1TB
NYY

NYY

8-6

4
5
TB

TB

7-7

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
21,620 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

39.2%

open 39.2%

+2.0+1.0TB SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL43.2%35.2%TB NO-VIG %MODEL 38.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

NYY 4 · TB 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
NYY01000002014
TB01000101025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    104
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 96
    103
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 93
    103
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 93
    83
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 93
    106
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 92
    82
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+144

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

39.2%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0/VegasNYY -175

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off New York Yankees, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

TB +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Austin Wells

Austin Wells

C

1.000OPS

5-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
NYY8-6
4
5
TB7-7
NYY8-6·TB7-7
NYY

NYY

8-6

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33000020
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33000021
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-55020001
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-33010021
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-33000011
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-55110001
SPRINT28.175
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-55111101
SPRINT25.18
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
2-55023002
SPRINT28.278
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-22010000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11200000
SPRINT26.735
A. RosarioA. Rosario3B
0-33000001
Team8-3838484179
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
8.0633060
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2100010
T. HillT. HillRP
0.1000000
D. BednarD. BednarRP
0.1221110
Team9.1954180
TB

TB

7-7

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44011011
SPRINT25.716
R. ViladeR. Vilade★RF
1-44010000
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
0-44002001
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44110001
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-44000001
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
2-44021001
SPRINT2993
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-44100001
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-33010000
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
2-33121001
SPRINT27.765
H. FeducciaH. FeducciaC
0-11000001
C. SimpsonC. SimpsonLF
1-11210000
SPRINT29.496
Team9-3636595018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
4.2511341
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1000010
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.2000030
G. JaxG. JaxRP
0.1000110
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0222100
H. BiggeH. BiggeRP
1.0000200
C. SulserC. SulserRP
1.0110000
Team10.0843791

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • M. Fried
    94 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      26%·93.4 mph·27% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.1 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      16%·73.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • CU
      46%·75.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      23%·90.9 mph·33% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FS
      75%·81.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·81.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Hill
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·87.2 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • N. Martinez
    87 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      38%·78.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      26%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      1%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • I. Seymour
    21 pitches·57% CSW
    • CH
      33%·84.0 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      5%·81.9 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Baker
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      40%·84.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Bigge
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      46%·89.6 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Sulser
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      55%·82.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      36%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      50%·88.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·91.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      13%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • SI
      50%·91.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      25%·77.6 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

4

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Apr 10NYYNYY3@TBTB5
Apr 11NYYNYY4@TBTB5today
Apr 12NYYNYY4@TBTB5

Season series

TB leads series 2-0

Apr 10NYYNYY3@TBTB5
Apr 11NYYNYY4@TBTB5today
Apr 12NYYNYY4@TBTB5
May 22TBTB4@NYYNYY2
May 23TBTB0@NYYNYY0
May 24TBTB0@NYYNYY2
Jul 6NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 7NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 8NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Jul 9NYYNYY@TBTBupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 22TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 23TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 24TBTB@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-17564%
TBTB+14441%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 48pp · Top 8th Inning

NYYNYY
A. Wells

A. Wells

C

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcher

8.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 6 H

TBTB
C. Simpson

C. Simpson

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TB beat NYY 5-4. Caballero's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (48pp).

Win probability

TB vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+48pp→ 76% WP

Caballero · doubled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored and Grichuk scored.

NYYTop 10th Inning · 4-3
+31pp→ 64% WP

Caballero · singled to center, Grichuk scored.

TBBottom 10th Inning · 4-4
+32pp→ 92% WP

Walls · reached on bunt single to pitcher, Mullins scored, Simpson to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
NYY01000002014
TB01000101025

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · TB won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Wells 1

DeLuca 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Aranda 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
1

Inn 8

Caballero 2

0
0

Inn 9

1
2

Inn 10

Caballero 1

Walls 1

NYY
TB

Play-by-play · 607 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  2. B10

    Aranda grounded into fielder's choice to second, Simpson scored, Díaz safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Chisholm Jr., Walls to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

    +17pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  5. B10

    David Bednar pitches to Jonathan Aranda

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 5

  6. B10

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  7. B10

    Feduccia struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

    −10pp

  8. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  9. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  10. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  11. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  12. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  13. B10

    David Bednar pitches to Hunter Feduccia

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  14. B10

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  15. B10

    Díaz intentionally walked, Walls to second.

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  16. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  17. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  19. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  20. B10

    David Bednar pitches to Yandy Diaz

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  21. B10

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  22. B10

    Walls reached on bunt single to pitcher, Mullins scored, Simpson to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

    +32pp

  23. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  24. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  25. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  26. B10

    Simpson stole second.

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  27. B10

    Simpson stole second.

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  28. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  29. B10

    David Bednar pitches to Taylor Walls

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 4

  30. B10

    · ·

    NYY 4·TB 3

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

TB

Home

4

Runs

5

8

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

14

TB

11

1

HR

0

7

BB

1

9

K

8

21

LOB

13

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYY -175/TB +144

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ryan ViladeTB · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TB vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    42.8%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.8%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.6%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.