Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at PIT?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 18, 2026

FINAL+1TB

12-8

PIT

12-9

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

37,773 attended

Line movement

17 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PIT no-vig %

59.0%

open 59.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
54.7%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.4%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.1%
P(PIT win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+133

Close price

+133

Open no-vig

41.0%

Close no-vig

41.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at PIT?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

PIT vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.3± 2.8medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.5± 2.4medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.4± 1.0high
Yandy DiazTB
1.2± 0.9high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.6± 3.1high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.6high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.6± 2.3high

RBIs

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.9± 1.2high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.7± 1.9high
Brandon LowePIT
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 2.7medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.6± 3.1low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.5± 1.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

PIT

.716

OPS

.719

▶

.742

.334

OBP

.319

.334

4.38

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.97

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.16

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 8 · PIT 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	R
TB	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8
PIT	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	7

Final play

“End of the 13th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.338	7	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.250	7	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.230	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
Y. DiazDH	.354	5	1	1	0	0	1	3
J. FraleyRF	.227	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.149	5	1	2	3	1	0	1
R. Palacios2B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.200	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. WallsSS	.257	6	1	0	0	0	0	4
R. ViladeRF	.217	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.300	4	2	2	2	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. FortesC	.327	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
Team		50	8	15	7	1	4	12

Player

.338

.250

.230

.354

.227

.149

.286

.200

.257

.217

.300

.241

.327

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	3.2	2	4	4	2	3	64
M. EnglertRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	15
I. SeymourRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	3	23
H. BiggeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
B. BakerRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	31
C. SulserRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	22
K. KellyRP	1.2	0	1	0	1	2	20
G. JaxRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	13
Y. GomezRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	16
Team	13.0	7	7	5	8	14	213

Player

3.2

0.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

13.0

213

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.302	6	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.267	5	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. ReynoldsLF	.253	3	1	0	0	0	3	1
R. O'HearnRF	.329	3	2	2	2	1	1	1
M. OzunaDH	.185	6	1	2	2	1	0	2
N. Yorke3B	.245	6	1	1	1	0	0	2
S. Horwitz1B	.245	4	0	0	0	0	2	2
K. GriffinSS	.216	6	0	1	2	0	0	2
H. DavisC	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. CookRF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MangumLF	.268	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. Gonzales3B	.242	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		46	7	7	7	2	8	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	4.0	3	0	0	0	5	64
C. SandersRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	2	20
E. SiskRP	1.2	4	1	1	0	2	38
J. LawrenceRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	23
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
I. MattsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Y. RamirezRP	3.0	4	3	1	2	1	44
Team	13.0	15	8	6	4	12	219

Team

PIT

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

PIT vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.