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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SD
COL

COL

6-7

3
7
SD

SD

7-6

Petco Park · San Diego, California
41,390 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL66.2%58.2%SD NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMJun 2, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

COL 3 · SD 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112R
COL0010000001103
SD0010000001147

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-186

Close price

-186

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Apr 9·Final/SeriesSD wins series 4-0/VegasSD -186

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off Colorado Rockies, 7–3.

SD -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. EstradaSD−50.7pp
  2. 2F. Tatis Jr.SD+46.2pp
  3. 3J. CronenworthSD+46.0pp

COL · top performer

COL
Brenton Doyle

Brenton Doyle

CF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Luis Campusano

Luis Campusano

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/12
COL6-7
3
7
SD7-6
COL6-7·SD7-6
COL

COL

6-7

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
2-3302000112.1
SPRINT26.225
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
0-330000019.0
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-220000017.7
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-4400001220.9
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-5500000213.9
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
2-5502000118.8
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-551000058.5
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
1-330100017.1
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
2-441211102.5
SPRINT28.483
T. FreemanT. FreemanRF
1-220110006.9
SPRINT27.148
K. KarrosK. Karros3B
1-3311000021.2
SPRINT27.251
B. SullivanB. SullivanC
1-220110008.0
SPRINT2872
Team10-414131031214—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. HergetJ. Herget★RP
1.00000003.5
C. DollanderC. DollanderSP
4.141113010.4
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.200002016.2
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.01001102.5
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
2.011020018.6
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
1.021001020.2
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
0.114320117.0
Team11.1974671—
SD

SD

7-6

7
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-5521001046.0
SPRINT28.891
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-3301101146.2
SPRINT28.483
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
0-4410002023.2
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-441110118.4
SPRINT24.32
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-6622410129.6
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
2-550200019.1
SPRINT26.735
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-5500000236.8
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-330000104.5
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-3311000012.7
R. LaureanoR. LaureanoLF
0-1100000124.4
M. AndujarM. AndujarDH
0-110000002.7
L. CampusanoL. CampusanoC
1-1101100033.7
Team9-4141797167—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
R. VasquezR. Vasquez★SP
5.271108114.3
B. RodriguezB. RodriguezRP
1.10000104.6
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.01000004.1
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.00000303.1
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.122021050.7
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.200001030.9
Team12.010312141—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • J. Mejia
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      78%·98.3 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      22%·84.3 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Hill
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.0 mph·— whiff

SD

  • A. Morejon
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      62%·99.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      24%·92.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Miller
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • FF
      54%·102.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      46%·88.6 mph·67% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

3

Runs

7

2

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 4-0

Apr 10COLCOL3@SDSD7today
Apr 11COLCOL2@SDSD5
Apr 12COLCOL5@SDSD9
Apr 12COLCOL2@SDSD7

Season series

SD leads series 1-0

Apr 10COLCOL3@SDSD7today
Apr 11COLCOL2@SDSD5
Apr 12COLCOL5@SDSD9
Apr 12COLCOL2@SDSD7
Apr 22SDSD1@COLCOL0
Apr 23SDSD3@COLCOL8
Apr 23SDSD10@COLCOL8
Jul 29COLCOL@SDSDupcoming
Jul 29COLCOL@SDSDupcoming
Sep 15SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 16SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 17SDSD@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 17SDSD@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+15340%
SDSD-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 46pp · Bottom 11th Inning

COLCOL
B. Doyle

B. Doyle

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Dollander

C. Dollander

SP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

SDSD
L. Campusano

L. Campusano

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 7 H

How it ended

SD beat COL 7-3. Campusano's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (46pp).

Win probability

SD vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLTop 11th Inning · 3-2
+35pp→ 73% WP

Sullivan · doubled to right, Karros scored.

SDBottom 11th Inning · 3-2
+25pp→ 68% WP

Sheets · singled to left, Bogaerts to third.

SDBottom 11th Inning · 3-3
+46pp→ 63% WP

Campusano · doubled to left, Bogaerts scored, Sheets to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112R
COL0010000001103
SD0010000001147

Period scoring

COL won 0 · SD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
1

Inn 3

Doyle 1

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
1

Inn 10

Freeman 1

Machado 1

1
1

Inn 11

Sullivan 1

Campusano 1

0
4

Inn 12

Bogaerts 4

COL
SD

Play-by-play · 736 plays

period
event
player
  1. B12

    ·

    COL 3·SD 7

  2. B12

    Bogaerts homered to left (399 feet), Cronenworth scored, Merrill scored and Machado scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 7

    +17pp

  3. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 7

  4. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  5. B12

    Valente Bellozo pitches to Xander Bogaerts

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 7

  6. B12

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  7. B12

    Machado intentionally walked, Merrill to second.

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

    +0.9pp

  8. B12

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  9. B12

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  10. B12

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  11. B12

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  12. B12

    Valente Bellozo pitches to Manny Machado

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  13. B12

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  14. B12

    Merrill intentionally walked.

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

    −3pp

  15. B12

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  16. B12

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  17. B12

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  18. B12

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  19. B12

    Valente Bellozo pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  20. B12

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  21. B12

    Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Cronenworth to third.

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

    +2pp

  22. B12

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  23. B12

    Valente Bellozo pitches to Fernando Tatis Jr.

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  24. B12

    Bellozo relieved Bernardino

    ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  25. B12

    Bottom of the 12th inning

    COL 3·SD 3

  26. M12

    Middle of the 12th inning

    COL 3·SD 3

  27. T12

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  28. T12

    Karros grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

    +10pp

  29. T12

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

  30. T12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 3·SD 3

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

3

Runs

7

10

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

16

TB

14

1

HR

1

2

BB

6

14

K

7

23

LOB

22

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 7.5·COL +153/SD -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    272
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    274
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 94
    272
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 93
    275
    25(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 28, 26sim 93
    272
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 9, 26sim 90
    273
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Brett SullivanCOL · C
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.4± 2.7low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.5± 2.4low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    1.9± 2.1high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jake McCarthyCOL
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high
  • Hunter GoodmanCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    4.0± 3.7low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.7± 2.6low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.3%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    68.1%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    70.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    67.4%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.