Matchup orbital
4
COL
COL
14-18
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
6
CIN
CIN
20-11
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CIN wins
COL 4 · CIN 6 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked CIN +17pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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COL14-18
COL
20-11CIN
CIN
Recap · MLB
incinnati Reds held off Colorado Rockies, 6–4.
CIN -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 1.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
CIN wins series 2-1
COL2@CIN7COL13@CIN2COL4@CIN6todaySeason series
CIN leads series 2-1
COL2@CIN7COL13@CIN2COL4@CIN6todayCIN@COLupcomingCIN@COLupcomingCIN@COLupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CIN -1.5
Total
9.0
High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
COL+13942%CIN-16963%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 3 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 5th Inning
COL
E. Tovar
SSBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS
M. Lorenzen
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 3 BB
CIN
N. Lowe
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS
A. Abbott
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB
How it ended
CIN beat COL 6-4. Friedl's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).
Win probability
CIN vs COL
Score progression
1 lead change
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactFreeman · homered to right (357 feet), Doyle scored.
Lowe · homered to center (399 feet).
Friedl · homered to right center (360 feet), Steer scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | — | 6 |
Period scoring
COL won 1 · CIN won 4
Inn 1
Freeman 2
Inn 2
Lowe 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Friedl 2
Inn 6
Steer 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Myers 1
Inn 9
Moniak 1
Game flow · key plays
- T8
Castro flied out to left.
COL 2·CIN 4
+11pp
- B5
Friedl homered to right center (360 feet), Steer scored.
COL 2·CIN 3
+27pp
- T5
Goodman struck out swinging.
COL 2·CIN 1
+9pp
- T5
Doyle grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Beck to second, Tovar to third, Karros out at home.
COL 2·CIN 1
+9pp
- B2
Lowe homered to center (399 feet).
COL 2·CIN 1
+11pp
- T1
Freeman homered to right (357 feet), Doyle scored.
COL 2·CIN 0
−19pp
Team stats
COL
Away
Stat
CIN
Home
9
Hits
7
0
Errors
0
4
Runs
6
Player box score
COL
14-18
J. Beck★
LF
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Doyle★
CF
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
H. Goodman★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Freeman★
RF
OPS
1.750
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
W. Castro★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Rumfield★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
K. Karros★
3B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
E. Tovar★
SS
OPS
2.000
H-AB
1-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Johnston★
RF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Moniak
LF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
E. Julien
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
9-34
R
4
RBI
4
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Beck★LF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
B. Doyle★CF | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
H. Goodman★C | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
T. Freeman★RF | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.750 |
W. Castro★2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
T. Rumfield★1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
K. Karros★3B | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
E. Tovar★SS | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 |
T. Johnston★RF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
M. MoniakLF | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
E. Julien2B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 9-34 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — |
M. Lorenzen★
SP
IP
5.1
H
4
ER
4
K
5
A. Senzatela
RP
IP
1.2
H
1
ER
0
K
1
V. Vodnik
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
2
K
1
IP
8.0
H
7
ER
6
K
7
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
M. Lorenzen★SP | 5.1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
A. SenzatelaRP | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
V. VodnikRP | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Team | 8.0 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
CIN
20-11
T. Friedl★
CF
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
M. McLain★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
E. De La Cruz★
SS
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Stewart★
1B
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Lowe★
1B
OPS
2.417
H-AB
2-3
R
2
RBI
1
HR
1
T. Stephenson★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Bleday★
LF
OPS
0.667
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Steer★
LF
OPS
1.417
H-AB
2-3
R
1
RBI
2
HR
0
W. Benson★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Myers
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
H-AB
7-31
R
6
RBI
6
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T. Friedl★CF | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.250 |
M. McLain★2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
E. De La Cruz★SS | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
S. Stewart★1B | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
N. Lowe★1B | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.417 |
T. Stephenson★C | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
J. Bleday★LF | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
S. Steer★LF | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.417 |
W. Benson★RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
D. MyersCF | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 7-31 | 6 | 6 | 2 | — |
A. Abbott★
SP
IP
6.0
H
5
ER
2
K
5
C. Phillips
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
3
T. Santillan
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
E. Pagan
RP
IP
1.0
H
3
ER
2
K
0
IP
9.0
H
9
ER
4
K
9
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
A. Abbott★SP | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
C. PhillipsRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
T. SantillanRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
E. PaganRP | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
Betting line
CIN -1.5·O/U 9·COL +139/CIN -169