Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at CIN?

The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 30, 2026

FINAL+2CIN

COL

14-18

CIN

20-11

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

17,211 attended

Line movement

45 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CIN no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
66.6%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
70.5%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.4%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-169

Close price

-169

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at CIN?: The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

CIN vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.0± 2.4medium
Andrew AbbottCIN
4.3± 1.5medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.4low

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.2± 0.7high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

TJ RumfieldCOL
2.5± 2.1high
Noelvi MarteCIN
1.9± 1.6high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.9± 2.5low

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 2.1high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.9± 1.0high
Willi CastroCOL
0.8± 2.2high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.5± 2.6low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.9± 2.8medium
Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

CIN

.733

OPS

◀

.718

.700

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.309

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

5.48

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.53

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.45

7.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

COL 4 · CIN 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4
CIN	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	2	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BeckLF	.161	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. DoyleCF	.214	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
H. GoodmanC	.257	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. FreemanRF	.286	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
W. Castro2B	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.207	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
E. TovarSS	.202	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. JohnstonRF	.313	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.315	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. McCarthyCF	.268	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
E. Julien2B	.304	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	9	4	1	3	9

Player

.161

.214

.257

.286

.247

.263

.207

.202

.313

.315

.268

.304

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. LorenzenSP	5.1	4	4	4	3	5	85
A. SenzatelaRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	16
V. VodnikRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	25
Team	8.0	7	6	6	5	7	126

Player

M. LorenzenSP

5.1

A. SenzatelaRP

1.2

V. VodnikRP

1.0

Team

8.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.187	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
M. McLain2B	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.282	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. Stewart1B	.281	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. LoweDH	.288	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
T. StephensonC	.178	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
S. SteerLF	.237	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
W. BensonRF	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. MyersCF	.286	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.130	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	6	7	6	2	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	6.0	5	2	2	2	5	86
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	23
T. SantillanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	5
E. PaganRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	11
Team	9.0	9	4	4	3	9	125

Team

COL

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CIN vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.